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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Bridging the Gap) - Hardcover
Buch 2 von 15: Bridging the Gap
Inhaltsangabe
This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices.
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Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor
Jeffrey A. Friedman is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His research focuses on the ways in which risk and uncertainty shape high-stakes policy decisions, particularly in the domain of national security. His research has been published by the American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, and International Security, among other journals. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2013.
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Bridging the Gap)
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ISBN 10: 0190938021
ISBN 13: 9780190938024
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War and Chance
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Bridging the Gap)
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Oxford University Press, 2019
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Hardcover. Zustand: Very Good. War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Bridging the Gap) This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. Bestandsnummer des Verkäufers 7719-9780190938024
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Bridging the Gap)
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
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Oxford University Press Inc, 2019
ISBN 10: 0190938021
ISBN 13: 9780190938024
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Hardback. Zustand: Good. Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse. Bestandsnummer des Verkäufers CIN0190938021G
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
Verlag:
Oxford University Press Inc, 2019
ISBN 10: 0190938021
ISBN 13: 9780190938024
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Hardcover
Anbieter: World of Books Inc, Montgomery, IL, USA
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Hardback. Zustand: Good. Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse. Bestandsnummer des Verkäufers CIN0190938021G
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