Book by Minford Patrick
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European economic and monetary union is driven by politics, but the economic costs and benefits of Britain's membership can and should be assessed, argues Professor Patrick Minford in this careful and succinct analysis of the cases for and against Britain adopting the Euro. The core argument in favour is the reduction of exchange-rate risk, but because the Euro is a regional currency that has fluctuated considerably against the dollar, exchange-rate variability might not be less under the Euro and could even increase. In any case, financial markets can diversify away such risks. Minford sees substantial costs of membership: increased variability of UK output, employment and prices in response to shocks; damaging harmonisation of tax rates, social support and regulation; and the possibility that British taxpayers will have to meet some of the costs of big projected state pension deficits in Germany, France and Italy. He concludes that EMU, 'as it is constituted and planned would be strongly against British interests to join'.
Patrick Minford is Professor of Economics at Cardiff University, where he directs the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics. His main research interest is in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. Between 1967 and 1976 he held a variety of economic positions, including spells in East Africa, industry, HM Treasury and its delegation in Washington, DC. From 1976 to 1997, he was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University, where he founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics; this built the 'Liverpool Model' of the UK, which was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. During the 1990s he also undertook part-time roles in the UK administration: he was a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission from 1990 to 1996, and one of HM Treasury's Panel of Forecasters ('Wise Men/Persons') from 1993 to 1996. He was made a CBE in 1996. His published work includes books, journal articles and op-ed pieces in the area of macroeconomics and related policy issues.
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