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Excerpt from Procedures for Projecting Rural Water Use in the Chesapeake Bay Area
A projection function which was well suited to these characteristics of agricultural production is the Spillman function. For rising sub area shares, the Spillman set limits by means of a linear regression; it estimated target date shares to approach these limits in a curvilinear fashion, thus registering less rapid increases with time. For a falling trend, the shares were assumed always to remain positive; zero was set as a limit, with the shares approaching it again in a curvilinear fashion to register less rapid decreases with time. See Appendix A for a more detailed description of the Spillman function.
The State totals which were allocated among the subareas in this analysis were provided by obers. Since they were an important part of the projection procedure, it is desirable to go in some depth into the assumptions which underlie the obers State - level projections.
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