This book is about practical forecasting and analysis of time series. It describes how to analyse time series data, how to identify structure, how to explain observed behaviour, how to model structures and behaviours, and how to use insight gained from the analysis to make informed forecasts.
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Pole, Andy; West, Mike; Harrison, Jeff
Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis includes a complete theoretical development of the dynamic linear model, with each step demonstrated with analysis of real time series data. The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgments derived from selected models applied to time series observations.
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