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Excerpt from Straw Votes: A Study of Political Prediction
This research, interestingly enough, had its beginnings in a class in Vital Statistics. The lecture for the day - it was in October, 1928, when the hoover-smith campaign for the presidency was at its height - was on the use of sampling in the study of the preva lence of morbidity, and the discussion quite naturally veered to the somewhat spectacular attempt then being 'made by the Literary Digest to sample the presidential preferences of the people on a nation-wide scale. Would the results of this straw-vote sample be corroborated by the official election -returns, and would the technique of sampling find general use in the political field as it had in the field of public health? The curiosity of one of the participants in that discussion was aroused to the point of making further inquiry. He secured the final straw-vote returns and compared them with the official election figures. In some states the proportionate division of the straw vote between candidates was found to be quite similar to_ the division recorded in the official balloting, but in other states the similarity was less pronounced. What caused this-varia tion in the predictive reliability of the straw poll? Was the answer to be found in the sampling technique employed? In the size of the return? In change of voting intention after the straw ballots had been marked? Here, indeed, were intriguing problems.
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Paperback. Zustand: New. Print on Demand. This book delves into the fascinating world of political prediction, exploring the methods and accuracy of those who attempt to forecast election outcomes. It examines the techniques used by various groups, including politicians, newspapermen, and straw poll conductors, to gauge public opinion and predict voting behavior. Emerging from a time when political forecasting was gaining prominence, the author provides a comprehensive analysis of the tools and strategies employed during that era. The book delves into the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, revealing the challenges and complexities involved in accurately predicting the will of the electorate. The book explores themes of public opinion, voter behavior, and the dynamics of political campaigns. It examines the influence of factors such as party loyalty, regional trends, and campaign strategies on election outcomes. The author's insights shed light on the evolving landscape of political forecasting and the quest to understand the forces shaping electoral choices. Ultimately, this book offers valuable insights into the art and science of political prediction, highlighting the importance of understanding public sentiment and the factors that influence voting decisions. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item. Bestandsnummer des Verkäufers 9780428920517_0
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