Citizens are political simpletons--that is only a modest exaggeration of a common characterization of voters. Certainly, there is no shortage of evidence of citizens' limited political knowledge, even about matters of the highest importance, along with inconsistencies in their thinking, some glaring by any standard. But this picture of citizens all too often approaches caricature.
Paul Sniderman and Benjamin Highton bring together leading political scientists who offer new insights into the political thinking of the public, the causes of party polarization, the motivations for political participation, and the paradoxical relationship between turnout and democratic representation. These studies propel a foundational argument about democracy. Voters can only do as well as the alternatives on offer. These alternatives are constrained by third players, in particular activists, interest groups, and financial contributors. The result: voters often appear to be shortsighted, extreme, and inconsistent because the alternatives they must choose between are shortsighted, extreme, and inconsistent.
Facing the Challenge of Democracy features contributions by John Aldrich, Stephen Ansolabehere, Edward Carmines, Jack Citrin, Susanna Dilliplane, Christopher Ellis, Michael Ensley, Melanie Freeze, Donald Green, Eitan Hersh, Simon Jackman, Gary Jacobson, Matthew Knee, Jonathan Krasno, Arthur Lupia, David Magleby, Eric McGhee, Diana Mutz, Candice Nelson, Benjamin Page, Kathryn Pearson, Eric Schickler, John Sides, James Stimson, Lynn Vavreck, Michael Wagner, Mark Westlye, and Tao Xie.
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Paul M. Sniderman is the Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr., Professor of Public Policy at Stanford University. Benjamin Highton is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Davis.
"Raymond Wolfinger taught me two things: be guided by common sense, even (and above all) when doing theory. And that, to understand how democracy works, we need first of all to pay attention to ordinary people and how they think and act. This volume exemplifies both these ideas and advances them further than I would have thought possible. This book greatly enlarges our understanding of American democracy."--John A. Ferejohn, New York University School of Law
"These remarkable essays by the profession's leading political scientists not only honor one of the great social scientists, teachers, and mentors of the twentieth century, but advance the long-standing debate about the quality of democracy in America. They are vintage Wolfinger in their approach--confronting sage theories and everyday notions of politics with hard facts."--Steven J. Rosenstone, chancellor, Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
"This lucid collection should give pause to skeptics about democracy. It offers a strong argument that the public is more engaged, consistent in its opinions, and rational in its voting than conventional wisdom holds."--Scott Keeter, Pew Research Center
Preface...................................................................................................................................................................................ixAcknowledgments...........................................................................................................................................................................xiList of Contributors......................................................................................................................................................................xiiiIntroduction: Facing the Challenge of Democracy Paul M. Sniderman and Benjamin Highton...................................................................................................1I. How Do Political Scientists Know What Citizens Want? An Essay on Theory and Measurement Arthur Lupia..................................................................................23II. Purposive Mass Belief Systems concerning Foreign Policy Benjamin I. Page and Tao Xie.................................................................................................47III. Cosmopolitanism Simon Jackman and Lynn Vavreck......................................................................................................................................70IV. Running to the Right: Effects of Campaign Strategy on Mass Opinion and Behavior Diana Mutz and Susanna Dilliplane....................................................................97V. Pathways to Conservative Identification: The Politics of Ideological Contradiction in the United States Christopher Ellis and James A. Stimson........................................120VI. Partisan Differences in Job Approval Ratings of George W. Bush and U.S. Senators in the States: An Exploration Gary C. Jacobson......................................................153VII. Political Participation, Polarization, and Public Opinion: Activism and the Merging of Partisan and Ideological Polarization John H. Aldrich and Melanie Freeze.....................185VIII. Political Parties in the Capital Economy of Modern Campaigns Jonathan Krasno.......................................................................................................207IX. Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections: Revisiting Candidate-Centered Conclusions in a Partisan Era Eric McGhee and Kathryn Pearson.......................................224X. The Myth of the Independent Voter Revisited David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, and Mark C. Westlye..................................................................................238XI. Who Really Votes? Stephen Ansolabehere and Eitan Hersh...............................................................................................................................267XII. Who Governs if Everyone Votes? John Sides, Eric Schickler, and Jack Citrin..........................................................................................................292XIII. The Effects of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout: An Updated Assessment Matthew R. Knee and Donald P. Green.......................................................................312XIV. Issue Preferences, Civic Engagement, and the Transformation of American Politics Edward G. Carmines, Michael J. Ensley, and Michael W. Wagner.......................................329References................................................................................................................................................................................355Index.....................................................................................................................................................................................379
AN ESSAY ON THEORY AND MEASUREMENT
Arthur Lupia
Democratic governance has many virtues. While scholars disagree about what these virtues are, there is a consensus that some virtues arise from the relationship between what governments do and what citizens want. It is no surprise, then, that many arguments about democratic governance's normative attributes are built upon claims about what citizens want.
The dependence of normative arguments on claims about citizen preferences is apparent in research on governmental responsiveness. A government's ability to achieve various normative goals depends on its knowledge of, and responsiveness to, citizen preferences. Valid preference measurements can help analysts defend claims about the extent to which governments are responsive. Of course, governmental responsiveness to what citizens want can also have detrimental consequences. Scholars who focus on such pathologies nevertheless recognize that governmental legitimacy and citizens' preferences are not independent. As Riker (1965) famously argued, "the essential democratic institution is the ballot box and all that goes with it." Hence, claims about what citizens want are relevant to a wide range of questions about what government does.
The dependence of normative arguments on claims about what citizens want is also apparent in citizen competence debates. While it is well known that many citizens are unable to answer factual questions that scholars and journalists find important, the normative implications of such inabilities are less well understood. Some pundits argue that citizens are so ignorant of basic political and economic concepts that governments should simply ignore what citizens want. More constructive researchers seek to clarify when and how citizens' inabilities to answer survey questions affect their preferences. Such research is conducted in different ways. Some scholars use surveys to solicit information about what citizens want. Others theorize about what citizens should want. Still others integrate both activities—they collect data on what citizens say they want and evaluate it with respect to assumptions about what citizens should want.
The range of examples described above shows how arguments about democracy's normative virtues depend on the validity of claims about what citizens want. As many scholarly claims about preferences come from survey data, many scholarly findings also depend on the accuracy of survey-based preference measurements. In this essay, I examine how many political scientists conceptualize and measure what citizens want. I then contend that we can improve our current conceptualization and measurement of citizen preferences.
Progress can come from paying greater attention to how two factors, institutions and cognition, affect preferences. Institutions matter because they moderate the relationship between citizens' thoughts and government's actions. In examining the effect of institutions, I argue that many scholarly claims about what citizens should want ignore the moderating effect of institutions. For example, when scholars estimate "the vote for U.S. president that a voter would have cast if more enlightened," they often base their assessment on the assumption that a voter should prefer the candidate whose policy preferences are closest to his or her own. I draw from a number of recent and emerging studies to show how such institution-free estimates can produce invalid claims about what citizens should want. For if a particular officeholder does not...
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