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List of Figures and Tables.............................................................................................................................................................ixAcknowledgments........................................................................................................................................................................xiList of Abbreviations..................................................................................................................................................................xv1. China's Foreign and National Security Policy-Making Process: Is It Changing and Does It Matter? DAVID M. LAMPTON...................................................................1PART ONE | INSTITUTIONS AND LOCALITIES2. The Central Leadership, Supraministry Coordinating Bodies, State Council Ministries, and Party Departments LU NING.................................................................393. The Influence of the Gun: China's Central Military Commission and Its Relationship with the Military, Party, and State Decision-Making Systems TAI MING CHEUNG.....................614. The External Relations of China's Provinces PETER T. Y. CHEUNG AND JAMES T. H. TANG................................................................................................91PART TWO | ELITE AND SOCIETAL OPINION5. The Foreign Policy Outlook of China's "Third Generation" Elite H. LYMAN MILLER AND LIU XIAOHONG....................................................................................1236. The Domestic Context of Chinese Foreign Policy: Does "Public Opinion" Matter? JOSEPH FEWSMITH AND STANLEY ROSEN....................................................................151PART THREE | INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM INFLUENCES7. Empowered and Restrained: Chinese Foreign Policy in the Age of Economic Interdependence THOMAS G. MOORE AND DIXIA YANG.............................................................1918. The Impact of International Regimes on Chinese Foreign Policy-Making: Broadening Perspectives and Policies ... But Only to a Point ELIZABETH ECONOMY...............................230PART FOUR | CASE STUDIES9. Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: The Dynamics of Chinese Nonproliferation and Arms Control Policy-Making in an Era of Reform BATES GILL...........................................25710. Chinese Decision-Making Regarding Taiwan, 1979-2000 MICHAEL D. SWAINE.............................................................................................................28911. The Case of China's Accession to GATT/WTO MARGARET M. PEARSON.....................................................................................................................33712. The Making of China's Korea Policy in the Era of Reform SAMUEL S. KIM.............................................................................................................371Notes..................................................................................................................................................................................409Contributors...........................................................................................................................................................................473Index..................................................................................................................................................................................479
DAVID M. LAMPTON
When asked what he and other economic officials thought about the February 21, 2000, white paper on Taiwan that threatened a restorm of reaction in Washington that might affect pending China-related legislation, a PRC [People's Republic of China] economic official responded as follows: "We [economic officials] said it would be bad for WTO [the World Trade Organization], but we were not the leading group creating this policy so ours was just a voice in a room. Nobody was going to listen to us.... Policies are created not by the whole government, but by parts in the government. We often don't know what the other side is doing."
INTRODUCTION
The second half of the twentieth century witnessed a gradual and important change in the Chinese foreign and national security policy-making process as it successively moved through the eras of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin. This shift is not only of theoretical importance; it also has significant consequences for China's international behavior in the early twenty-first century. The world involvement of the PRC is now much more extensive than in the earlier period, particularly in the domains of economics, culture, and multilateral organizations. Moreover, the role of expertise in government is much greater, the bureaucracy is more differentiated and complex, and therefore the way in which recurrent policy issues are handled is different. Concisely, the process for making recurrent, noncrisis decisions is more bureaucratic in character, with elite options constrained; decisions are often harder to produce. Frequently, as the quote opening this chapter suggests, the left hand does not know what the right is doing.
On the other hand, showing some continuity with the period of Mao, the most senior political elite, headed by General Secretary Jiang Zemin, continues to play the decisive role in establishing broad national strategy. It alone determines policy on issues such as China's big power alignments, whether or not to join the WTO, and whether or not to set a timetable for national reunification with Taiwan, potentially jeopardizing other important national goals. With regard to these strategic questions, it is essential to know the arena in which decisions are made and who sits at the table.
The Chinese policy-making process, therefore, presents the analyst with two faces. With regard to major issues of strategy, the setting of broad agendas, and crisis management, the senior elite still has considerable latitude. As Nathan and Ross observe, "Of all the large countries, China has had the greatest freedom to maneuver, act on grand strategy, shift alignments, and conduct a strategic foreign policy in the rational pursuit of national interest." Dramatic changes in policy are, therefore, possible, although the personalized authority of Jiang Zemin is dramatically less than that of Mao Zedong in the earlier era, and (as Bates Gill points out in his contribution to this volume), the elite is often hemmed in by the cumulative logic of previous, recurrent decisions.
At the same time, in its myriad dealings with the rest of the world on routine issues ranging from arms control to economic relations, Beijing increasingly speaks, often with multiple voices, in terms familiar to the rest of the world, and policy changes gradually. In this realm, decisions tend toward global and professional norms, against the ever-present backdrop of real-politik and considerations of national interest. Those who deal with Beijing, therefore, must be aware of the potential for abrupt changes arising from a system that is compartmentalized and personalized at the very top. At the same time, they may be reassured by the constraints that offer the prospect of a China that eventually may fit more comfortably into the...
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