Balance Sheet: The Iraq War and U.S. National Security - Hardcover

Duffield, John S.; Dombrowski, Peter J.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0804760136 ISBN 13: 9780804760133

Verlag: STANFORD SECURITY STUDIES, 2009

Inhaltsangabe

The last six years have witnessed a virtually unending debate over U.S. policy toward Iraq, a debate that is likely to continue well into the new administration and perhaps the next, notwithstanding recent improvements on the ground.

Too often, however, the debate has been narrowly framed in terms of the situation in Iraq and what steps the United States should take there next, leaving the broader impact of the war on American interests largely overlooked. Ultimately, though, the success and failure of the war will have to be judged in terms of its overall contribution to U.S. national security, including those repercussions that extend far beyond the borders of Iraq.

This book addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of the Iraq war for the national security of the United States. It is aimed at both those who have not yet made up their minds about the merits of the war and those who wish to ground their opinions in a clearer understanding of what effects the war has actually had.

Balance Sheet examines both how the war has advanced or retarded the achievement of other important goals of U.S. national security policy and its impact on the ability of the United States to pursue its security interests now and in the future. Individual chapters by expert authors address such key issues as the war on terror, nuclear non-proliferation, stability in the Middle East, the health of the U.S. military, America's standing in the world, and U.S. public opinion.

By doing justice to the full range of stakes involved, this book not only reframes the debate over the Iraq war but provides a necessary foundation for future U.S. policymaking toward Iraq and beyond.

Über diesen Titel

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

John S. Duffield is Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University in Atlanta. He is the author of Power Rules: The Evolution of NATO's Conventional Force Posture (1995), World Power Forsaken: Political Culture, International Institutions, and German Security Policy After Unification (1998), and Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence (2008). Peter J. Dombrowski is Professor and Chair of the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI. His books include Buying Military Transformation: Technological Innovation and the Defense Industry (2006) with Eugene Gholz, Military Transformation and the Defense Industry After Next: The Defense Industrial Implications of Network-Centric Warfare (2002) with Eugene Gholz and Andrew Ross, andPolicy Responses to the Globalization of American Banks (1996).

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Balance Sheet

THE IRAQ WAR AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

STANFORD SECURITY STUDIES

Copyright © 2009 Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-8047-6013-3

Contents

Contributors.........................................................................................................ixPreface..............................................................................................................xiii1 Toward a Balance Sheet: What, Why, and How John S. Duffield and Peter J. Dombrowski...............................12 The Iraq War and the War on Terror: The Global Jihad After Iraq Steven Simon......................................163 The Iraq War and the Failure of U.S. Counterproliferation Strategy Joseph Cirincione..............................394 The Iraq War and American National Security Interests in the Middle East F. Gregory Gause III.....................685 The Iraq War and the State of the U.S. Military Michael E. O'Hanlon...............................................876 The International Political Costs of the Iraq War Thomas G. Weiss.................................................1067 The Iraq War and U.S. Public Opinion Clay Ramsay..................................................................1328 Are We Safer Now? Peter J. Dombrowski and John S. Duffield........................................................158Notes................................................................................................................203Index................................................................................................................239

Chapter One

TOWARD A BALANCE SHEET

What, Why, and How

John S. Duffield and Peter J. Dombrowski

I think that is where we must begin, by considering the overall security of this nation.... Iraq is an important piece of that overall equation, but it is only a piece. Rep. Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services committee, September 10, 2007

It is an iron law of warfare that the unintended consequences, for good and bad, are as important-if not more so-than the intended. Because these consequences take time to work themselves through, the long-term reputations of wars rarely reflect the first reviews. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies, King's College, London

PURPOSE

In mid-March 2003, the Bush administration took the United States to war with Iraq. Members of the administration believed, or at least claimed, that the war would yield substantial benefits for U.S. national security at little cost. By deposing Saddam Hussein, the United States would eliminate a major threat to its vital interests. Among other things, the invasion would remove a regime that was hostile to the United States and its regional allies, including Israel, and that possessed, or would soon possess, nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, it would end the need to maintain the politically unpopular and increasingly expensive policy of containment using a porous sanctions regime and complex no-fly zones. In addition, attacking Iraq would open another front in the Global War on Terror (GWOT), albeit an increasingly controversial one that many would later judge unnecessary. In the place of Saddam's despotic regime, moreover, a democracy would be erected that could serve as a model for the rest of the region. Regional security for the United States, its allies, and friends would be further improved because a democratic Iraq would lead to a virtuous and reinforcing cycle. Not least important, a relatively small amount of American combat forces operating for a limited period in-country would win a swift victory, and the costs of rebuilding Iraq would be paid for largely out of the country's oil revenues.

Initially, events seemed to support the administration's arguments. U.S. and other coalition forces quickly overcame organized resistance. Within weeks, they had defeated the Iraqi army, captured Baghdad, and driven Saddam Hussein into hiding. At the beginning of May, President Bush declared the end of major combat operations.

Even this opening phase of the war was not without costs, however. The administration's insistence on using force strained relations with a number of major allies, and the invasion caused much anger throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds. Within Iraq itself, thousands of innocent civilians died, and much of the country was plunged into chaos.

As the quick initial victory turned into a prolonged occupation in the face of a fierce insurgency, both U.S. casualties and financial outlays steadily mounted. Success proved to be much more elusive and expensive than the Bush administration had foreseen, or had been willing to admit. Nearly six years after the war began, the United States continued to maintain fifteen combat brigades and approximately 140,000 military personnel in Iraq. As of late 2008, the war's ultimate outcome remained uncertain.

Has the Iraq War been worthwhile? Has it made the United States safer? This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the Iraq War for the national security of the United States. It is aimed in particular at those who have not already made up their minds about the ultimate merits of the Iraq War or wish to ground their opinions in a clearer understanding of what effects the war has actually had. What in fact have been the overall costs and benefits of the Iraq War to U.S. national security? Answering this question is a necessary first step in the process of drawing conclusions about the wisdom of the war as well as devising new policies toward Iraq and beyond.

JUSTIFICATIONS

Why is it important to prepare such a balance sheet, and why now? We recognize that a number of people may regard such an assessment as either unnecessary or irrelevant. Some made up their minds about the wisdom of the war long ago, although they may fundamentally disagree on whether it has been worthwhile. For members of the Bush administration and its supporters, the war, despite the many difficulties and challenges, has been a success, at least in terms of national security objectives. Whatever the costs, they have been greatly outweighed by the benefits, such as the deposing of Saddam Hussein and the establishment of democratic institutions in the heart of the Middle East. As Vice President Richard Cheney declared in Baghdad on the fifth anniversary of the start of the war, it has been a "successful endeavor" and "well worth the effort."

For many critics of the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq, the war has been an unmitigated disaster. As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution editorialized, "It seems fair to conclude that after five years of war, the sacrifice of almost 4,000 American lives and the expenditure of an estimated $1 trillion and counting, we have accomplished absolutely nothing in Iraq." Whatever the ultimate outcome, it could never justify the human toll (in Iraqi as well as American lives) and the vast sums of money, perhaps as much as several trillion dollars or more, that will have been spent in the end.

For die-hard proponents and opponents of the war alike, there is little point in conducting any further analysis. Still others may no longer be interested in thinking about the war, or they would simply rather avoid...

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: STANFORD SECURITY STUDIES
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2009
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 0804760136
• ISBN 13: 9780804760133
• Einband: Gebundene Ausgabe
• Anzahl der Seiten: 264
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: Mare Nostrum Group B.V.; gpsr@mare-nostrum.co.uk; ; Doelen 72; Breda; 4831 GR; Niederlande