The Nuclear Renaissance and International Security - Hardcover

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0804784175 ISBN 13: 9780804784177

Verlag: Stanford University Press, 2013

Inhaltsangabe

Interest in nuclear energy has surged in recent years, yet there are risks that accompany the global diffusion of nuclear power-especially the possibility that the spread of nuclear energy will facilitate nuclear weapons proliferation. In this book, leading experts analyze the tradeoffs associated with nuclear energy and put the nuclear renaissance in historical context, evaluating both the causes and the strategic effects of nuclear energy development.

They probe critical issues relating to the nuclear renaissance, including if and how peaceful nuclear programs contribute to nuclear weapons proliferation, whether the diffusion of nuclear technologies lead to an increase in the trafficking of nuclear materials, and under what circumstances the diffusion of nuclear technologies and latent nuclear weapons capabilities can influence international stability and conflict. The book will help scholars and policymakers understand why countries are pursuing nuclear energy and evaluate whether this is a trend we should welcome or fear.

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Über die Autorinnen und Autoren

Adam Stulberg is Associate Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. Matthew Fuhrmann is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University.

Adam Stulberg is Associate Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech.Matthew Fuhrmann is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University.

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THE NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Stanford University Press

Copyright © 2013 Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-8047-8417-7

Contents

Acknowledgments................................................................................................................................................viiContributors...................................................................................................................................................ixIntroduction: Understanding the Nuclear Renaissance Adam N. Stulberg and Matthew Fuhrmann.....................................................................11 Correlates of Nuclear Energy: Back to the Future or Back to Basics? Bernard Gourley and Adam N. Stulberg....................................................192 Where, How, and Why Will Nuclear Happen? Nuclear "Renaissance" Discourses from Buyers and Suppliers Allison Macfarlane......................................503 Nuclear Suppliers and the Renaissance in Nuclear Power Matthew Fuhrmann.....................................................................................734 Internationalization of the Fuel cycle and the Nuclear Energy Renaissance: Confronting the Credible Commitment Problem Adam N. Stulberg.....................975 Vaunted Hopes: Climate Change and the Unlikely Nuclear Renaissance Joshua William Busby.....................................................................1246 The Politics of the Nuclear renaissance: a comment Christopher Way..........................................................................................1547 Stop Helping Me: When Nuclear Assistance Impedes Nuclear Programs Alexander H. Montgomery...................................................................1778 The Nuclear Renaissance, Sensitive Nuclear Assistance, and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Matthew Kroenig....................................................2039 Consequences of the Nuclear Renaissance for Nonstate Nuclear Trafficking Justin V. Hastings.................................................................22310 The Logic of Nuclear Patronage: A Comment Erik Gartzke.....................................................................................................25011 Nuclear Weapons Programs and the Security Dilemma Kyle Beardsley and Victor Asal...........................................................................26512 Nuclear Power and Militarized Conflict: Is There a Link? Michael C. Horowitz...............................................................................28813 The Global Nuclear Renaissance and the Spread of Violent Conflict: A Comment Dan Reiter....................................................................313Conclusion: What Future for Nuclear Energy? Matthew Fuhrmann and Adam N. Stulberg.............................................................................321Index..........................................................................................................................................................345

Chapter One

Correlates of Nuclear Energy

Back to the Future or Back to Basics?

Bernard Gourley and Adam N. Stulberg

On March 11, 2011, WAVES AS HIGH AS 14 METERS HIT the nuclear power plants (NPPs) of Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, knocking out backup power and resulting in a loss-of-coolant accident when pumps went off line and temperatures rose high enough to damage fuel elements. The aftermath of the crisis left the utility operator of the ill-fated NPPs, Tokyo Electric Power Company or TEPCo, contemplating bankruptcy after suffering the largest loss ever for a Japanese firm outside the financial sector. Japan's Prime Minister, then Naoto Kan, subsequently called for upgrading safety and security inspections and announced that the country would not build new nuclear plants—a strict volte-face from pre-tsunami plans of a 30 percent growth in nuclear capacity over the coming decade (Economist Intelligence Unit 2011). The shutdown of almost two-thirds of the country's reactors (in response to both the accident and accelerated schedules of inspections) saddled utilities across the country with short- and long-term electricity shortages. Coupled with the formal scathing indictment of "human error" and poor safety planning, this stirred national debate over the costs and risks associated with future expansion of nuclear energy (FNAIIC 2012). Similarly, global public reflection on the costs and possible consequences of nuclear energy led many states to reexamine their nuclear industries, with divergent conclusions. For example, while the Germans committed to phasing out nuclear power and Italy scrapped plans to reconstitute nuclear capacity, other nuclear energy states (e.g., Russia and China), as well as aspirants (e.g., Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates [UAE]), elected to press ahead with existing plans for nuclear power development. As discussed below, Tokyo faces a confluence of factors that render nuclear a particularly appealing power source, and which resulted in the Japanese building nuclear plants when almost no other country was doing so. If Japan—given the powerful drivers motivating its pursuit of nuclear that include geographic isolation, resource scarcity, and status as a proponent of climate change mitigation—follows suit with Germany in abandoning this energy source, what can be expected of states with far less pressing motivations?

The issue takes on added significance in light of the mixed bag of nuclear energy states. As of 2012, thirty-one countries possess an operational commercial-scale nuclear energy infrastructure; and they are a diverse set of states, including Armenia, Belgium, China, Finland, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Argentina. These states, as well as more than fifty others that have expressed interest in joining them, run the gamut in terms of standard of living, governance, location, population size, security environments, resource allocation, and levels of industrial development.

This raises the following questions: Are there characteristics shared by nuclear power–generating states that distinguish them from non-nuclear energy states? Do historical commonalities hold for contemporary nuclear energy aspirants? What are the implications for projecting the scope and scale of alternative nuclear energy futures? In short, how much do we know (or not know) about the correlates of nuclear power generation?

Answers to these questions are important for illuminating the contours of a prospective global expansion of nuclear energy. First, identification of common attributes can assist with distinguishing rhetoric from reality surrounding a much-heralded nuclear energy renaissance. Notwithstanding both the widespread resuscitation of interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima Daiichi disaster and the public shock waves that ensued, the lion's share of new reactor construction has occurred, to date, in states already in possession of a nuclear energy infrastructure, especially China, India, and Russia. There are notable cases of states that have articulated a strong commitment to nuclear power for decades but have achieved, at best, modest success, such as Indonesia and Turkey. Do these trends represent a new era or a temporary waypoint in the development of nuclear energy? Exploration of shared traits among existing and aspirant nuclear energy states can shed light on similarities and distinctions between historical and contemporary trajectories of nuclear energy stagnation, resurgence, or renaissance.

Second, systematic inquiry into shared...

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: Stanford University Press
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2013
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 0804784175
• ISBN 13: 9780804784177
• Einband: Gebundene Ausgabe
• Anzahl der Seiten: 376
• Herausgeber: Stulberg Adam N., Fuhrmann Matthew
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: Mare Nostrum Group B.V.; gpsr@mare-nostrum.co.uk; ; Doelen 72; Breda; 4831 GR; Niederlande