The Future of Risk Management (Critical Studies in Risk and Disaster) - Hardcover

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0812251326 ISBN 13: 9780812251326

Verlag: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2019

Inhaltsangabe

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required.

When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes.

The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events.

Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

Über diesen Titel

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at McKinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

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Introduction
—Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

PART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Chapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management
—Paul Slovic and Daniel Västfjäll
Chapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management
—Elke U. Weber
Chapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking
—Baruch Fischhoff
Chapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk
—Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona Ahmadiani
Chapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply
—Mark Pauly
Chapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience
—Robert J. Meyer

PART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties
—Robert Muir-Wood
Chapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses
—Robin Dillon
Chapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership
—Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Chapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities
—Adam Rose

PART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES
Chapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks
—Robin Gregory and Nate Dieckmann
Chapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments
—Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard Zeckhauser
Chapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings
—Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard Zeckhauser

PART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCE
Chapter 14. Threats to Insurability
—Carolyn Kousky
Chapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future
—Howard Kunreuther
Chapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives
—W. J. Wouter Botzen
Chapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation
—Jeffrey Czajkowski

PART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Chapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management
—Cary Coglianese
Chapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks
—Robert W. Klein
Chapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward
—Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

List of Contributors
Index

* * * * *

Introduction
Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

Hurricane Katrina. Superstorm Sandy. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Contaminated water in Flint, Michigan. Anthrax. 9/11 terrorist attacks. Earthquakes. Oil and chemical spills. Boston Marathon attack. Financial crisis. Refugee crisis. Ebola. Sea level rise. Devastating floods. Cyber-attacks. Geopolitical instability.

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, an unprecedented series of large-scale disasters and crises have caused a vast number of fatalities and injuries, destroyed property, devastated communities, savaged the environment, imposed significant financial and emotional burdens on individuals and firms, and challenged political leadership.

The Future of Risk Management

Thirty years ago, the study of risk management was viewed narrowly. Scientists and engineers provided estimates of the probability of specific types of disasters occurring and their potential consequences. Economists proposed risk management policies based on these experts' estimates with little thought as to how these data would be used by interested parties.

Today we live in a new age of catastrophe and increasing uncertainty. Besides the disasters that arise with alarming regularity, we are faced with major challenges in dealing with natural and technological hazards and global issues, such as climate change and terrorism.

What makes these risks all the more difficult to address is that the world has become more interdependent and interconnected; what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have ripple effects across the globe. The information age is also more integrated, creating new forms of communication and greater risks that are not easy to evaluate. All of this implies that new approaches to risk management are required. These measures need to combine the latest scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation of the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes.

While significant progress has been made in quantitatively assessing risks, there is also a growing recognition that we need to integrate psychological and behavioral elements into our risk management strategies. By recognizing the systematic biases and simplified heuristics used by decision-makers, we should be better able to develop effective strategies for coping with them. Today, risk assessment and risk management are no longer the sole domain of scientists, engineers, and economists. The disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, psychology, sociology, and the decision sciences now work together, challenge one another, and in the process, build new approaches.

In this edited volume we offer a view into the present and future of risk management. We invited leading thinkers in risk management and the behavioral sciences to address the question: What is the future of risk management based on what we have learned from our past research? While this book is not intended to provide a comprehensive analysis of the topic, it allows the reader to benefit from the experience and perspective of a number of respected scholars in the field as they look back at recent discoveries and at some of the important open questions we still face.

Over its 35-year history, the Wharton Risk Center has focused its research on how individuals, organizations, and government at all levels can deal with extreme events. While many decisions regarding low-probability, high-consequence events are based on intuitive thinking—with emotions, past experience, and systematic biases playing a key role—more deliberative thinking such as the use of decision analysis and cost-benefit analysis can provide important insights to develop effective strategies.

Organization of the Book

The book is organized into five parts, each of which addresses avenues for practitioners and researchers to consider. We briefly summarize below the chapters in each of these parts.

Behavioral Factors Influencing Decision-Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Part I probes the behavioral and psychological factors that influence decision-making in risky situations. Why do some people invest in protective measures to prevent severe losses from the next disaster, while others do not? What catastrophes or personal hardships elicit widespread compassion that other less salient events do not? What factors influence people in their risk perceptions, risk-taking, and risk management? The chapters point to several new directions as this topic is quickly evolving and needs more attention in the future.

Paul Slovic and Daniel Västfjäll discuss three nonrational psychological mechanisms that confound the arithmetic of compassion: psychophysical numbing (insensitivity to large numbers of losses of human lives), pseudoinefficacy (being deterred from helping one person because one cannot help others), and the prominence effect (the disconnect between our stated values and the values revealed by our actions). Their chapter...

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: University of Pennsylvania Press
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2019
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 0812251326
• ISBN 13: 9780812251326
• Einband: Gebundene Ausgabe
• Anzahl der Seiten: 406
• Herausgeber: Kunreuther Howard, Meyer Robert J., Michel-Kerjan Erwann O.
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: Nicht verfügbar
• Verantwortliche Person: preigu; mail@preigu.de; ; Lengericher Landstr. 19; Osnabrück; 49078; Deutschland