This working paper maps the range of natural hazards and other risks to which people in Mexico and Central America are exposed and relates these to the complex social, economic, political and cultural factors that make some social sectors more critically vulnerable than others in emergencies.
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Monica Trujillo works for Oxfam GB in Central America as an Emergencies Support Person with special responsibility for gender and representation.
Acknowledgements, 5,
Abbreviations and acronyms, 6,
Preface, 7,
1 Introduction, 10,
2 Assessment of threats and risks, 13,
3 Assessment of vulnerability, 27,
4 Assessment of local capacity, 51,
5 Progress and needs in disaster management, 61,
6 Lessons and challenges, 66,
Resources and finance, 68,
Conclusions, 68,
References and background reading, 69,
Index, 70,
Introduction
Background to the risk-mapping exercise
Oxfam GB (hereafter referred to as 'Oxfam') has always been involved in a broad range of humanitarian aid programmes. It views emergency relief work as a way of addressing the needs that arise from poverty and suffering, and seeks through its interventions to optimise people's capacity to control the factors that affect them in their daily lives, as well as to influence humanitarian aid policies and practices in a wider context.
Emergencies and natural disasters which interrupt the processes of development, or which exacerbate existing instabilities and/or conflicts, often precipitate a crisis for the poor. In Mexico and Central America, Oxfam has long supported impoverished communities whose lives have been affected by natural phenomena and conflicts. Its aim in these circumstances is to strengthen the capacity of the poor and marginalised to bring about changes which are positive and sustainable, and to reduce their vulnerability in the event of emergencies or any other situations in which their basic rights are denied.
Oxfam's Programme of Preparedness for Emergencies in Mexico and Central America is an essential step towards providing an effective, efficient, and appropriate humanitarian response to emergencies in this region. The mapping exercise that forms the basis of this Working Paper represents a starting point in developing this programme. The mapping exercise had the following aims.
• To predict possible emergencies that might arise in the region and to ascertain their potential impact on those most affected.
• To identify the local capacity for emergency response within each country.
• To envisage the type of external assistance needed for an effective and appropriate response to emergencies.
The exercise began with a literature review, including Oxfam's own policy documents on the subject, in order to establish an institutional framework and to identify existing processes and initiatives within this field. An overall methodology was then agreed as a basis for defining the nature of the risks, vulnerabilities, and capacities in the region; for selecting the indicators and determining the variables and weightings to be used in assessing them; and for formulating tools for gathering, processing, and analysing information. Field visits were made to Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras, using the original methodology. In the second phase, the methodology and criteria used were broader, and visits were made to high-risk areas in Guatemala, Mexico, and Nicaragua. Neither Panama nor Belize was included in the main exercise.
Methodology
It is always a challenge to represent in simple terms the complex reality within which emergency situations occur, in a way that also allows one to visualise the key elements in an aid agency's decision-making process. As a point of departure, we assume that emergencies are not external to the on-going development processes, but are part of them. They constitute interruptions or crises which then have major repercussions on the development opportunities of a given community or area. Since disasters always have the potential to undermine development, measures to prevent, prepare for, and mitigate disasters should inform every plan and strategy for sustainable development.
We assumed that this methodology should be a tool for people who are not disaster experts, but whose depth of local knowledge and experience makes them experts in the conditions and potentialities of a given country, region, or locality. This study thus sought to develop a fuller analysis than one based on technical expertise alone, by combining relevant formal information with the accumulated experience of local actors. Although the methodology was devised to assess risks, vulnerabilities, and local capacities at a regional level, it can also be adapted for local-level application.
The threats to be studied were selected on the basis of the most frequent events or disasters in the region, though some were included because of the severity of their impact, rather than because of their frequency. The scenarios were those most likely to occur in Mexico and Central America, in order to provide a comprehensive view of the region, and the threat or risk of disasters, whether natural or of human agency. Qualitative and quantitative indicators were established. The first phase of the study sought to validate the methodology by testing it against a range of diverse and complex realities. Adjustments were subsequently made to take account of the fact that it was not possible to consult as many people in the region as had been hoped, and because not all the information we had expected to be available was accessible; hence we had to make use of some old data and also abandon some of the proposed indicators. Despite these constraints, we none the less achieved a fairly accurate level of approximation in the first phase of the exercise.
Physical characteristics of the region: an overview
Five tectonic plates meet in the area covered by Mexico and Central America, the movement and interaction of which determine the extremely high seismic activity throughout the region (principally along the Pacific coastline), which causes frequent earthquakes and occasional tsunamis (tidal waves created by quakes on the seabed). There is also an active chain of volcanoes right down the Pacific Strip, with the Tacana volcano actually linking Mexico with the Central American isthmus. In addition, four cyclogenetic zones are present in the Pacific and the Atlantic ocean masses, in which there is activity throughout the annual hurricane season (June–November).
The prevailing climate patterns, together with ecological deterioration, are resulting in irregular and changing rainfall patterns, which subject wide areas to a continuous fluctuation between increasingly severe floods and droughts. Other phenomena, such as earthquakes or tornadoes, affect only a limited area, but have a significant impact.
The region's economic structure is dependent on international markets and powers, with regard both to the sale of products (mainly agricultural) and the acquisition of raw materials and technology for the manufacture of basic goods. In general, wealth is highly concentrated among small, prosperous minorities who co-exist with a marginalised and growing majority who live in extreme poverty. A fairly uniform economic structural adjustment-model has been applied throughout the region over the last decade. Although this has led to an apparent improvement in macro-economic performance, there has also been rising unemployment, a depression in agricultural production (principally affecting campesino [peasant] producers and the indigenous peoples), and a widening gap between rich and poor.
The...
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