Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts - Hardcover

Harris, Maury

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1118865073 ISBN 13: 9781118865071

Verlag: Wiley, 2014

Inhaltsangabe

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts

In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:

• Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.
• Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions.
• Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment―a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks―in readable and illuminating detail.
• Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises.
• Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues―including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies.
• Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Über diesen Titel

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

MAURY HARRIS is a Man-aging Director and Chief Economist for the Americas for the UBS investment bank. Dr. Harris has led forecasting teams ranked as the most accurate in the country in four separate years over the past decade. In addition, he has been named numerous times to the Institutional Investor (II) All-America Research Team over the past two decades. Dr. Harris is a past President of the Forecaster's Club of New York. Prior to the UBS AG acquisition of PaineWebber Incorporated, he was the Chief Economist for PaineWebber. Before that, Dr. Harris worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and The Bank for International Settlements. Dr. Harris holds a PhD in eco-nomics from Columbia University, an MA in economics from Columbia University, and a BA in economics from the University of Texas, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is married with two children.

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INSIDE THE CRYSTAL BALL

Drawing on author Maury Harris' long and successful career in the field of economic forecasting, Inside the Crystal Ball offers an insider's hands-on guide that can improve almost anyone's ability to make long-range business and investment deci-sions. Filled with illustrative examples and real-world situations, the book explains how and why forecasting practitioners succeed, and sometimes fail, to correctly predict the future. Using the information and strategies outlined in this vital resource can bolster your ability to effectively communicate advice about the economic future to clients, bosses, colleagues, and anyone else.

For the investor, Inside the Crystal Ball is an insider's guide to demystifying the sometimes confusing and contradictory analysis of the future presented by pundits and professionals as support for investment decisions. Harris clearly illustrates how accurate forecasting is more about honing judgment of the underlying drivers than about proficiency in pure quantitative analysis mathematics and statistics. In other words, a successful forecasting career is for all of us, not just the geeks.

The author reveals why some forecasters are more reliable than others and presents his successful approach to both the statistical and judgmental aspects of forecasting. Harris assesses the four competing schools of economic thought and sheds light on their strengths and weaknesses. The book also addresses long-standing forecasting challenges such as reliance on government information, shifting business sentiment and fickle consumers, as well as the newer challenges such as the "New Normal" and terrorism. In addition, Harris examines in detail the toughest challenge of all the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates.

Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part of our lives. Let Maury Harris's Inside the Crystal Ball give you the confidence to originate, communicate, and evaluate advice about the future more effectively.

Aus dem Klappentext

Drawing on author Maury Harris' long and successful career in the field of economic forecasting, Inside the Crystal Ball offers an insider's hands-on guide that can improve almost anyone's ability to make long-range business and investment decisions. Filled with illustrative examples and real-world situations, the book explains how and why forecasting practitioners succeed, and sometimes fail, to correctly predict the future. Using the information and strategies outlined in this vital resource can bolster your ability to effectively communicate advice about the economic future to clients, bosses, colleagues, and anyone else.

For the investor, Inside the Crystal Ball is an insider's guide to demystifying the sometimes confusing and contradictory analysis of the future presented by pundits and professionals as support for investment decisions. Harris clearly illustrates how accurate forecasting is more about honing judgment of the underlying drivers than about proficiency in pure quantitative analysis--mathematics and statistics. In other words, a successful forecasting career is for all of us, not just the geeks.

The author reveals why some forecasters are more reliable than others and presents his successful approach to both the statistical and judgmental aspects of forecasting. Harris assesses the four competing schools of economic thought and sheds light on their strengths and weaknesses. The book also addresses long-standing forecasting challenges such as reliance on government information, shifting business sentiment and fickle consumers, as well as the newer challenges such as the New "Normal" and terrorism. In addition, Harris examines in detail the toughest challenge of all--the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates.

Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part of our lives. Let Maury Harris's Inside the Crystal Ball give you the confidence to originate, communicate, and evaluate advice about the future more effectively.

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: Wiley
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2014
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 1118865073
• ISBN 13: 9781118865071
• Einband: Gebundene Ausgabe
• Auflage: 1
• Anzahl der Seiten: 400
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: Wiley-VCH GmbH; product_safety@wiley.com; ; Boschstrasse 12; Weinheim; 69469; Deutschland