Deterministic Chaos in Models of Human Behavior: Methodological Issues and Experimental Results (Classic Reprint) - Softcover

Sterman, John D.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1334298092 ISBN 13: 9781334298097

Verlag: LULU PR, 2018

Inhaltsangabe

Excerpt from Deterministic Chaos in Models of Human Behavior: Methodological Issues and Experimental Results

Recent work has shown that several well-known models in the system dynamics literature contain previously unsuspected regimes of deterministic chaos. The work of Day (l982a, l982b) provides an early example of chaotic behavior in economic models, while Mosekilde and others (1987) have developed corporate models which exhibit chaos. Two of the most extensively analyzed such models are Sterman's model of the economic long wave (sterman 1985, 1986, Rasmussen, Mosekilde, and Sterman 1985) and the production distribution system or Beer Distribution Game (forrester 1961, Jarmain 1963, Sterman 1984, Mosekilde and Larsen, this issue). While the demonstration that chaos can be endogenously produced in these systems is an important theoretical development, the significance of the results hinges in large measure on whether the chaotic regimes lie in the realistic region of parameter space or whether they are mathematical curiosities never observed in the real system. Further there are major questions regarding the descriptive accuracy of the decision rules postulated in the models of human systems developed to date which contain strange attractors. The practical significance of chaos and other phenomena such as self-organization in policy-oriented modeling remains unclear until it can be determined that these phenomena can occur in models whose decision rules are grounded in empirical study of the actual decision processes of the agents. It is difficult if not impossible to resolve such issues by appeal to the aggregate empirical data. In the case of the long wave, for example, there have been at most five long-wave cycles since the industrial revolution, too few for statistically reliable results. Worse, the data required are simply unavailable, and much of it is corrupted by measurement error (chen, this issue).

About the Publisher

Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com

This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: LULU PR
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2018
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 1334298092
• ISBN 13: 9781334298097
• Einband: Taschenbuch
• Anzahl der Seiten: 56
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: Copytech (UK) Ltd, Trading as Printondemand-worldwide.com; gpsr@podww.com; ; 9 Culley Court; Orton Southgate; Peterborough; Cambridgeshire; PE2 6WA; Vereinigtes Königreich
• Verantwortliche Person: Easy Access System Europe Oü, 16879218; +358405003575; gpsr.requests@easproject.com; ; Mustamäe tee 50; Tallinn; 10621; Estland