The ability to consistently make one's best possible decisions can be a major factor in achieving success in life. A systematic process for accomplishing this goal, along with relevant examples are described. In addition, important background material on goal setting, the nature of information, related aspects of human nature and key perspectives of time and space are discussed. Applying the process to forming rational opinions in such areas as religion and politics is also addressed.The semi-quantitative process that the author calls "Probabilistic Rationalism" is derived from more formal decision theory methodology routinely used by management in making crucial business decisions, especially in situation possessing a significant degree of uncertainty.Applying this useful technique to situations frequently encountered in every-day life can help achieve a "gold medal" in that most important game, "the game of life".
J. Stuart Fleming Education: BA - Northwestern University (Biology/Chemistry) 1958 MA - University of Buffalo (Physiology) 1962 PhD - Ohio State University (Physiology) 1965 MBA - Syracuse University 1983 Career: Bristol Laboratories/Bristol-Myers Squibb 1965 - 2000 Senior Scientist (Cardiovascular Pharmacology), Associate Director of Pharmacology, Associate Director of Project Planning and Management Publications: Original Research Papers - approximately 60 Book Chapters - 4 Book Editor - Drugs and The Delivery of Oxygen to Tissue Background for Current Manuscript: The benefits of using decision theory to identify candidates for advanced drug development were discovered during a career assignment as Associate Director of Project Planning and Management. The associated complex decisions involved considerable uncertainty and led to major investment commitments. The concept for the current book came to mind upon realizing that many decisions needed in every day life would also be amenable to decision analysis, The book discusses relevant aspects of the nature of information and human behavior as they relate to decision making. A simplified decision making process that can be used quite easily in every day life situations, termed Probabilistic Rationalism, is described. A number of examples are provided including a detailed analysis of the global warming issue as well as special situations such as religion and politics where decision analysis can be useful in spite of being rather limited in scope.
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