Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Band 129) - Softcover

Cox Jr., Louis Anthony

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1441947035 ISBN 13: 9781441947031

Verlag: Springer, 2010

Inhaltsangabe

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.  This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

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Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Louis Anthony Cox Jr. is a Professor of Business Analytics at the University of Colorado, USA; Chief Digital Intelligence Officer at Entanglement, Inc.; and President of Cox Associates, a Denver-based applied research company specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning; health, safety, and environmental risk analysis; epidemiology; policy analytics; data science; and operations research. Dr. Cox is Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), and a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). He has authored and co-authored over 200 journal articles and numerous books and chapters in these fields. He holds over a dozen US patents on applications of artificial intelligence, signal processing, statistics, and operations research in telecommunications. His current research interestsinclude computational statistical methods for causal inference in public health risk analysis, data mining, and advanced analytics for risk management, business, and public policy applications.

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"Tony Cox is among the most active and creative architects and users of quantitative risk analysis. This book is full of interesting equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that characterize QRA and its applications to risk management. Informed by trenchant thinking and perceptive writing, this is a timely resource for the risk analysis community."  Michael R. Greenberg, Professor and Faculty Dean, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University

 

"Tony Cox's impressive book applies both simple and cutting-edge risk models to a variety of fields.  It demonstrates creative but tractable ways to model real-world problems of great practical importance regarding biological, engineering, and social risks.  This book deserves to become influential and widely read by those seeking practical state-of-the-art methods for risk analysis."  Vicki Bier, Professor, Engineering Physics and Industrial Engineering & Director - Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

"Risk analysis is as old as the first cave dweller mulling how to survive winter or woolly mammoths. It remains essential today in our world of accidents, disease, climate change and terrorism.  But some say that quantitative risk analysis is too complicated or time-consuming, and that qualitative intuition is a better way to make decisions.  In this ambitious and meticulous book, Tony Cox makes the case that quantitative risk analysis is actually the antidote to uncertainty and complexity, superior to other modes of thinking, both practical and effective.  Cox raises the bar on a vital debate."  Jonathan B. Wiener, Duke University, and President, Society for Risk Analysis (2008)

 

"This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager. Simple but devastating examples show hownot to do risk analysis.  Insightful case studies apply quantitative risk assessment to natural, random threats, and to terrorist threats posed by an intelligent adversary.  This is a timely and much-needed resource for skeptical consumers of risk analysis advice and products, and for those who need to improve upon current, dangerously simplistic, guidance on threat assessment and risk management."  Gerald G. Brown, Distinguished Professor, Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

 

"This book provides a refreshing new perspective on quantitative risk assessment, and should be of interest to a wide range of practitioners. Drawing substantially on his own work, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA can be applied even to challenging and complex systems."   Suresh Moolgavkar, Vice President and Principal Scientist, Exponent Scientific Consulting; Professor of Epidemiology, University of Washington

 

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: Springer
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2010
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 1441947035
• ISBN 13: 9781441947031
• Einband: Taschenbuch
• Anzahl der Seiten: 468
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: ProductSafety@springernature.com; ProductSafety@springernature.com; ; Poststr. 9; Darmstadt; 64293; Deutschland