Improving Risk Analysis (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 185, Band 185) - Hardcover

Cox Jr., Louis Anthony

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1461460573 ISBN 13: 9781461460572

Verlag: Springer, 2013

Inhaltsangabe

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt.  The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions.  Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution.

"Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know:  How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies.  Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."
Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University

"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."
Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University

"TonyCox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis.  Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."
Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Über diesen Titel

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Louis Anthony Cox Jr. is a Professor of Business Analytics at the University of Colorado, USA; Chief Digital Intelligence Officer at Entanglement, Inc.; and President of Cox Associates, a Denver-based applied research company specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning; health, safety, and environmental risk analysis; epidemiology; policy analytics; data science; and operations research. Dr. Cox is Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), and a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). He has authored and co-authored over 200 journal articles and numerous books and chapters in these fields. He holds over a dozen US patents on applications of artificial intelligence, signal processing, statistics, and operations research in telecommunications. His current research interestsinclude computational statistical methods for causal inference in public health risk analysis, data mining, and advanced analytics for risk management, business, and public policy applications.

Von der hinteren Coverseite

​Improving Risk Analysis discusses and illustrates practical methods for assessing, communicating, and managing uncertain risks when the probabilities of consequences caused by alternative actions cannot be quantified with useful confidence, accuracy, and precision. This monograph demonstrates how to avoid these pitfalls by using improved techniques of risk analysis. Through these improved techniques of risk analysis, readers will better understand uncertain risks and be able to make more effective decisions about how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 and 2 explore the key principles on how high-quality risk analysis can greatly improve the clarity and effectiveness of decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 3 shows in greater detail how these introduced methods can be applied to health effects of air pollution, with emphasis on understanding and modeling causal relations between exposures and responses based on realistically limited and imperfect data. Throughout the book, real-world examples and case studies drawn from health, safety, environmental, and terrorism risk analysis are used and illustrate the practical application of techniques for improving risk analysis.

Details zur Ausgabe

• Verlag: Springer
• Erscheinungsdatum: 2013
• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN 10: 1461460573
• ISBN 13: 9781461460572
• Einband: Gebundene Ausgabe
• Anzahl der Seiten: 411
• Kontakt zum Hersteller: ProductSafety@springernature.com; ProductSafety@springernature.com; ; Poststr. 9; Darmstadt; 64293; Deutschland