A nuclear weapon explodes in a major American city and no one can prove who is responsible. The devastation is horrifying, but even more alarming is the limited options available for the United States government to respond. Hypothesising an explosion in downtown Washington, D.C., Schwartz explores the likely outcomes while going deep into history to explore the range of options available to a Commander in Chief. Drawing from his experience as an analyst at the US Departments of Defense, State and Energy, Schwartz offers a fully panoramic view of a terrifying reality.
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Benjamin Schwartz has served in a variety of national security positions within the United States government, including in the Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Energy. This is his first book.
Copyright
This book is dedicated to the late Harvey Sicherman.
A man who understood the power of words and how to wield that power in service of American statecraft.
May his memory be a blessing.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or official policies of the US Department of Defense or any other agency of the US government.
<table class="table"><tbody><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-copyright">COPYRIGHT </td><td></td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1">DEDICATION </td><td></td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-preface003">INTRODUCTION </td><td class="toc-preface">The Explosion</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter001">ONE </td><td class="toc-chapter">The Persistent Danger:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn1">Two Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter002">TWO </td><td class="toc-chapter">The New Threats:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn2">Three Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter003">THREE </td><td class="toc-chapter">The Lessons of Nuclear Deterrence:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn3">Three Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter004">FOUR </td><td class="toc-chapter">The Lessons of Countering Terrorism:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn4">Four Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter005">FIVE </td><td class="toc-chapter">Global Impact:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn5">Five Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-chapter006">SIX </td><td class="toc-chapter">The Red Line:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="td3" id="fn6">Fifteen Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-appendix001">CONCLUSION </td><td class="toc-chapter">The New Order:</td></tr><tr><td></td><td class="toc-chapter" id="fn7">Twenty-Three Days “Right of Boom”</td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-endnotes">NOTES </td><td></td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-acknowledgements">ACKNOWLEDGMENTS </td><td></td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1" id="toc-index001">INDEX </td><td></td></tr><tr><td class="toc-preface1">ABOUT THE AUTHOR </td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>INTRODUCTION
THE EXPLOSION
ON AN OTHERWISE CALM AND UNEVENTFUL MORNING, A small nuclear weapon explodes in downtown Washington, DC. The device generates a yield of fifteen kilotons, roughly the same force unleashed by the bomb Little Boy over Hiroshima. The casualty count rises to over a hundred thousand, and the destruction is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. The blast’s electromagnetic pulse burns out electrical components across the metropolitan area. Radiation leaves the center of the city uninhabitable for the first time since it was declared America’s capital in 1790, and the scientific community predicts that it will remain so for a decade. The stock market plunges as investors anticipate draconian customs regimes that will choke global trade. Fear of further attacks paralyzes America and much of the Western world.
Hours after the explosion, a little known terrorist group claims responsibility. It is the first time the president, who was not in Washington at the time of the blast, and his surviving cabinet members, including the director of national intelligence, have heard of the group. After searching intelligence databases, analysts report that the group is linked to three hostile governments, all of which have issued statements condemning the attack and denying involvement. It will take weeks for the remnants of the US intelligence community to assess that one of these three governments is probably lying, but even then the US government won’t have irrefutable evidence of complicity. Unlike a ballistic missile or bomb delivered by enemy land-, air-, or seacraft, the origin of what analysts will call a “container-based improvised nuclear device” is difficult to determine and impossible to prove.
Nuclear forensics will ultimately provide strong evidence that the fissile material used in the device originated from the country under suspicion. Signals intelligence will record celebrations and praise of the attack by midlevel officials in that country’s military and intelligence establishment. However, the intelligence reporting taken as a whole will suggest that negligence within that country’s weapons industry and at its nuclear complexes is at least as plausible a scenario as a deliberate transfer by government officials to the terrorist group. Yet there is no conclusive reporting that points to either willful negligence or human error. Either way, there is no way to know if the transfer occurred through official policy, the machinations of a venal or ideologically motivated individual, or simple incompetence. There is almost nothing about the origins of the attack that the president of the United States knows for certain.
The world awaits a response from the White House. What happens next?
Many books have been written on the topic of nuclear weapons, and many others have been written on terrorism. A smaller but still sizable number of authors have focused on nuclear terrorism, particularly since al-Qaeda’s attacks of September 11, 2001. Purveyors of popular culture, from American novelists to Hollywood directors, have also addressed the subject. Author Tom Clancy envisioned terrorists targeting the Super Bowl with nuclear weapons in The Sum of All Fears in 1991. Hollywood offered us the George Clooney vehicle The Peacemaker in 1997. The acclaimed post-9/11 TV drama 24 presented a bleak, dangerous world in which terrorists were always only a few ticks away from nuclear disaster. Americans have had so much entertainment on the issue that they may feel sufficiently educated.
Yet there are very few authors, academics, or entertainers who have really thought through the scenario described above or examined in detail the question of what happens in the days, weeks, and months after such an attack. Presumably, part of the reason for this is that the US government’s response to nuclear terrorism is unknowable. Ask anyone who has spent time at the White House on the National Security Council staff and they will tell you that decisions of war and peace are in no small part the product of fickle factors like the personality of the president and the people who surround him. Thoughtful national security practitioners also know that happenstance and dumb luck have a prominent role in shaping discussions in the White House Situation Room. These conditions make realistic speculation difficult to formulate. The...
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