Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making - Softcover

Program, U.S. Climate Change Science

 
9781500479169: Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making
Softcover
ISBN 10: 1500479160 ISBN 13: 9781500479169
Verlag: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2014

Inhaltsangabe

The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.

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Verlag
CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
Erscheinungsdatum
2014
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
1500479160
ISBN 13 
9781500479169
Einband
Taschenbuch
Anzahl der Seiten
92
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