In a book that is as certain to be as controversial as it is meticulously researched, a former special assistant to the president for National Security Affairs and senior official of the Central Intelligence Agency shows that the U.S. could be headed toward a nuclear face-off with communist China within four years. And it definitively reveals how China is steadily pursuing a stealthy, systematic strategy to attain geopolitical and economic dominance first in Asia and Eurasia, then possibly globally, within the next twenty. Using recently declassified documents, statements by Russian and Chinese leaders largely overlooked in the Western media, and groundbreaking analysis and investigative work, Menges explains China's plan thoroughly, exposing:
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Foreword by Bill Gertz...........................................................................ixIntroduction.....................................................................................xv1. Reform, Repression, and the New China-Russia Alliance.........................................1Part I: China2. The First Mao Years, 1949-1965................................................................193. The Cultural Revolution, 1965-1976............................................................474. Soviet War Threats and the Opening of Relations with the U.S..................................595. Economic Modernization and China-U.S. Relations, 1979-1986....................................746. Communist Hardliners Crush Political Liberalization, 1986-1989................................997. China-U.S. Relations after Tiananmen, 1989-1992...............................................1158. U.S.-China Relations, 1993-2000...............................................................1249. A New Congressional Approach to China.........................................................151Part II: Russia10. The Soviet Era in Overview...................................................................16711. Gorbachev and the End of the USSR, 1985-1991.................................................17912. The Yeltsin Era, 1992-2000...................................................................19313. The New Century with President Putin.........................................................22914. U.S.-Russia Relations Since 1992.............................................................254Part III: China and Russia15. China's International Actions................................................................29316. "A Rich Country and a Strong Army": Military Modernization and Buildup.......................31117. The New China-Russia Alliance................................................................33618. China: Stealthy Strategy toward Global Dominance.............................................367Part IV: Winning the Peace-A Comprehensive Strategy19. Russia and China's Two-Track Policies: Destination Unknown...................................42120. The Other Axis: China and Russia- America's Foremost Strategic Challenge.....................42621. A Prudent and Proactive U.S. Strategy........................................................43122. Russia: Incentives for Democracy and Cooperation with the West...............................45123. China: Realistic Engagement, Not Unconditional Engagement....................................46324. Encouraging Democracy and Human Rights in Russia and China...................................478Acknowledgments..................................................................................515Notes............................................................................................517Index............................................................................................557
The Parting of the Ways: June 4th, 1989
In the late 1980s there was a hopeful sense of positive developments within the two major Communist powers. In the Soviet Union, President Mikhail Gorbachev was attempting to institute limited political reforms and to permit some private economic activities that would not be directly controlled by the state. In China, there had been a shift from the fanatical extremism and brutal repression of the Mao years to pragmatic economic policies intended to gradually open the economic system, but in a manner that would keep the Chinese Communist Party in political control. This economic opening, in turn, led to a marked reduction in the regimentation of daily life in China and to some efforts at political liberalization.
These liberalizing trends produced severe frictions within the ruling Communist parties of each country, however, and on June 4, 1989, dramatic events in both empires, thousands of miles apart, led in two entirely different directions. In Poland, Solidarity, with Gorbachev's approval, competed in a reasonably free and fair election against the Communist Party for control of 35 percent of the seats in the existing parliament and for 100 percent of the seats in a newly established, but entirely symbolic, senate. The result was that Solidarity received overwhelming public support, winning 99 percent of the seats in parliament open for competition. Solidarity's dramatic electoral victory set in motion the events of 1989-90, through which most of the peoples of Central Europe peacefully liberated themselves from Communist one-party dictatorships-a geopolitical sea change symbolized by the opening of the Berlin Wall in November 1989.
Two years after Solidarity's victory, Boris Yeltsin won the first free presidential election in the thousand-year history of Russia and shortly thereafter turned back the August 1991 coup attempt by hard-line Soviet Communists seeking to remove Gorbachev-the leader of the Communist Party and president of the Soviet Union-and reverse the reform course upon which he had consciously set his nation. Ultimately, in December 1991, Gorbachev agreed to the dissolution of the USSR, allowing each of the fifteen constituent Soviet republics to become an independent state, responsible for its own destiny.
In stark contrast, on June 4, 1989, the Chinese Communist leadership decided to stamp out the democratic stirrings in its country, using the full power of the military and secret police to crush peaceful demonstrations by students and young workers in Tiananmen Square and throughout China. This use of brutal military force against unarmed civilians resulted in the deaths of an estimated five to ten thousand persons, with many thousands wounded throughout China. The Tiananmen massacre was accompanied by the arrest and imprisonment in the vast Chinese system of forced-labor camps and prisons of an estimated fifty to sixty thousand.
From the start of the post-Mao era, the Chinese leadership explicitly stated that its plans for economic modernization were to occur under the firm political control of the Communist Party. Contrary to many in the West who saw democratic evolution necessarily following economic liberalization, the Chinese Communist Party worked diligently to ensure that its controlled opening of the economy was not accompanied by the kind of political freedom that might threaten its rule.
In fact, the Chinese leadership viewed the subsequent peaceful removal of Communist dictatorships in Central Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union as confirmation that it had made the right choice at Tiananmen. Since then, any and all efforts by the people of China toward political liberalization have been met with swift and brutal repression. Even groups such as Christians, Buddhists, and members of other religions with no political agenda but which seek to exist independently of the Communist regime have been harshly persecuted. In 1999, the Chinese regime began the arrest and brutalization of members of a meditation/exercise association (Falun Gong), and in 2002 further increased the persecution of millions of Christians contending that they were instigated by "hostile Western powers headed by the USA" in order to "perpetuate infiltration."
The Ensuing Years
From the perspective of the Chinese...
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