Drawing on research from the New England Climate Adaptation Project, “Managing Climate Risks for Coastal Communities” introduces a framework for building local capacity to respond to climate change. The authors maintain that local climate adaptation efforts require collective commitments to risk management, but that many communities are not ready to take on the challenge and urgently need enhanced capacity to support climate adaptation planning. To this end, the book offers statistical assessments of one readiness enhancement strategy, using tailored role-play simulations as part of a broader engagement approach. It also introduces methods for forecasting local climate change risks, as well as for evaluating the social and political context in which collective action must take place. With extensive illustration and example engagement materials, this volume is tailored for use by researchers, policy makers and practitioners.
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Lawrence Susskind is Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and the Founder and Chief Knowledge Officer of the Consensus Building Institute (CBI).
Danya Rumore is the Associate Director of the Environmental Dispute Resolution Program and a Visiting Assistant Professor at the University of Utah.
Carri Hulet is a Senior Associate with CBI.
Patrick Field is Managing Director of CBI and Associate Director of the MIT-Harvard Public Disputes Program.
Figures and Tables,
Acknowledgments,
Abbreviations,
PART I,
1. Helping Coastal Communities Prepare for and Respond to Climate Change-Related Risks,
2. Assessing the Social Landscape, Understanding the Readiness Challenge,
3. Why Public Engagement is Necessary to Enhance Local Readiness for Climate Adaptation,
4. NECAP Summary Risk Assessments: Creating Usable Knowledge to Help Communities Manage Climate Change Risks,
5. Enhancing Readiness to Adapt through Role-Play Simulations,
6. Reflecting on the New England Climate Adaptation Project — Lessons Learned,
7. Toward a Theory of Collective Risk Management,
Appendices,
Appendix 1: Climate Change Projections: Barnstable,
Appendix 2: Climate Change Projections: Cranston,
Appendix 3: Climate Change Projections: Dover,
Appendix 4: Climate Change Projections: Wells,
Appendix 5: Workshop Pre-Questionnaire,
Appendix 6: Workshop Post-Questionnaire,
Appendix 7: Data Appendix: Workshop Survey and Public Poll Tables,
PART II,
Introduction,
Stakeholder Assessment: Dover, New Hampshire,
Summary Risk Assessment: Barnstable, Massachusetts,
Role-Play Simulation: Wells, Maine,
Case Study: Cranston, Rhode Island,
Public Poll Report: Wells, Maine,
About the Authors,
New England Climate Adaptation Project Partners,
Index,
HELPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES PREPARE FOR AND RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED RISKS
Lawrence Susskind and Danya Rumore
Bay Point is a midsized coastal New England town. Two years ago, a major flood destroyed the town's sewage treatment plant, which was located near the harbor. Estimates suggest that it will cost the town $18 million to rebuild the treatment plant. Since Bay Point does not have this kind of money on hand (and it was self-insuring the plant), the town will have to finance the project through a 30-year bond issue. The resulting revenues will pay for the plant, but the accompanying debt service will increase the town's annual operating budget for the next three decades.
As the town considered various rebuilding options, some officials and residents argued that the plant should be moved to a different site, farther from the harbor. This would require purchasing a new property, which in turn would add about 10 percent to the total cost of rebuilding. Moving the plant inland, moreover, would require reworking the network of underground feeder pipes. This would involve tearing up streets and seriously disrupting summer tourism — a major industry for the town — which would likely result in economic losses. Given all of the costs associated with moving the plant inland, local public officials decide to rebuild at the old location. Their reasoning: a major flood like this only happens once every 100 years, right?
This scenario reflects the circumstances faced by coastal communities throughout New England, the United States and much of the rest of the world. Like Bay Point, few communities are giving serious consideration to the fact that the climate is changing as they make everyday planning decisions. For a coastal New England town, this means the need to prepare for a future with an increasing number of severe storms, increased chances of flooding, serious coastal erosion and — perhaps most ominous for communities directly on the water — ongoing sea level rise. In the case of Bay Point, this means that the "100-year flooding window" that helped determine the outcome of the planning process is, simply, wishful thinking. In fact, there is a very high likelihood that the new sewage treatment plant will be damaged or destroyed, and perhaps even submerged permanently, before the 30-year bond has been paid off. Unfortunately, the infrastructure planning team in a community like Bay Point seldom has the advantage of climate change projections or professional vulnerability analyses to inform its rebuilding efforts. No one is there to tell them the bad news: that the likely costs of rebuilding at the old location could far exceed the costs of moving the plant inland.
Like public officials in Bay Point, decisions-makers in most communities — coastal and otherwise — continue to plan for the past climate rather than the likely future one. They simply don't understand that the severe storms that used to occur about once every 100 years may soon happen once every 20 to 30 years. Even if public officials in communities think climate change is real — and not all do — they often choose the politically easier path — for example, rebuilding the sewage treatment plant at the old site in order to avoid additional upfront costs. While this may make short-term political sense, it ignores longer-term risks and vulnerabilities and thereby adds to their communities' liabilities. Of course, some public officials understand climate change risks and are ready to take them seriously, but even in this group, many feel they don't have the public support they need to make the necessary investments, particularly in light of other, seemingly more pressing problems. If the choice becomes framed as providing a quality education to our children today, or guaranteeing public safety, versus worrying about a hypothetical storm that may be years or decades off, today's school children and police forces naturally tend to prevail.
In this book, we argue that preparing for climate change should begin immediately. The everyday choices that individuals and communities make — such as whether to build a sewer system large enough to manage storm overflows in Dover, New Hampshire, or to impose low impact development regulations in Cranston, Rhode Island — will have long-term financial and public health consequences. Those consequences will come back to haunt these communities if climate change-related risks are ignored. Failing to prepare for and take account of climate change-related risks today will only make those communities and regions more vulnerable and increase the costs they have to pay in the long run — infrastructure damage, degraded or devastated ecosystems, adverse public health impacts and even the loss of human life.
We also argue that preparing for climate change — which is typically referred to as climate change adaptation — is primarily, although by no means entirely, a local issue. State, federal and international initiatives can support adaptation, but the impacts of climate change risks are largely local, as are the efforts needed to respond to them.
To help clarify what these local efforts will likely entail, we reframe "adaptation" in terms of local preparedness and collective risk management. Preparing for and managing climate change-related risks will require whole communities to act to increase their resilience, regardless of what the future brings. For this to happen, cities and towns must prepare their citizenry to plan for a range of possible futures. They should not assume that past climatic conditions are an adequate predictor of what the future holds. Local decision-makers and their communities must make the changing climate a key factor in their everyday...
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