Inhaltsangabe
Dr. Jiang Zhou was applying for a senior data scientist position at an online advertising company. As part of the screening process, he was given a project to predict what products should be offered to which customers based on historical data. After 1 week of his hard work, Dr. Zhou delivered this technical report. The hiring manager considered that Dr. Zhou's response was the best among that he had received. All business are facing the challenge, i.e., what products offered to which customers. Thus, this technical report will benefit data scientists, statisticians and business analysts who provide data driven decision support for companies. Content ABOUT THE AUTHOR 4 BACKGROUND 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 DATA PREPARATION 9 FEATURE CALCULATION 11 MODELS DEVELOPMENT 14 MODELS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 16 IMPACT OF TRAINING DATA SIZES 18 FINAL MODEL 21 ANSWERS TO THE THREE QUESTIONS 23 CONCLUSIONS 26 FURTHER STUDIES SUGGESTED 27 APPENDIX A. DISTRIBUTION OF THE DATA 28 APPENDIX B. TOP 30 SUBSCRIBERS AND THEIR CAMPAIGNS FOR WEEK 27 30 About the Author Dr. Zhou has nearly two decades of experience building predictive analytics solutions across industries including telecommunication, banking and insurance. These solutions have resulted in over $200 million savings for clients. He is a member of industrial advisory board, University of Massachusetts – Boston. Dr. Zhou has founded/co-founded a number of data analytics companies including, Business Data Miners (http://businessdataminers.com/) and 慧信 (Smart Credit). Previously, he was a senior modeling engineer at Nestor, Inc., the chief statistician at Lightbridge, Inc., a vice president at Citizens Bank and a consulting member of technical staff at Oracle Inc. He has made presentations about data analytics at American Bankers Association(ABA) conferences, Predictive Analytics World ( "Building In-Database Predictive Scoring Model: Check Fraud Detection Case Study" at Predictive Analytics World), universities and other events. Dr. Zhou has been involved in 3 head to head competitions to build the best predictive models, i.e., a customer credit risk model for a top 3 cell phone company, a bank card fraud detection model for a top 15 bank, and a direct sales model for a marketing company (described in this technical report). Dr. Zhou's models have won all 3 competitions. He is the author of the blog www.deep-data-mining.com that is regarded as one of the best on data analytics and data mining. Dr. Zhou obtained a B.S. from Zhejiang University, M.S. from Beijing University, and a Ph.D. from the University of Connecticut. He can be reached by email at jay.zhou@deep-data-mining.com.
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Build Competition Winning Direct Marketing Predictive Models: Technical Report
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