Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting: Error metrics, visual tools, handling unaided judgment, analysis of judgmental adjustments, joint Bayesian modelling - Softcover

Davydenko, Andrey

 
9786203471229: Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting: Error metrics, visual tools, handling unaided judgment, analysis of judgmental adjustments, joint Bayesian modelling
Softcover
ISBN 10: 6203471224 ISBN 13: 9786203471229
Verlag: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2021

Inhaltsangabe

When it comes to forecasting, it's important to know how good your forecasting is and if there are ways to improve it. This work focuses on finding reliable and informative indicators of forecasting performance and on how to improve forecasts with the use of judgment. Chapter 2 explores limitations of various error measures and introduces a new class of metrics (AvgRel-metrics) for measuring forecasting performance using the following rules: i) relative indicators are averaged across series using the weighted geometric mean, ii) an indicator used to evaluate forecasts must correspond to the loss function used to optimize forecasts. The AvgRelMSE and AvgRelMAE metrics are proposed to measure accuracy under quadratic and linear loss, respectively, and the AvgRelAME to measure bias. Boxplots of logs of relative indicators are used to visualize distributions. Chapters 3 and 4 look at models for handling unaided judgment & judgmental adjustments. In particular, this work introduces advanced models based on using panel data and Bayesian analysis. Chapter 5 proposes a novel approach allowing to incorporate judgment into a joint model and update forecasts as new data becomes available.

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Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Andrey has a rich experience of working as a data scientist/researcher on various projects, including credit scoring and the development of commercial software for business forecasting. He's a Microsoft Certified Solution Developer, has CSc. and Ph.D. degrees. His interests involve dataviz tools, error metrics, combining judgment and stat. methods.

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Verlag
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
Erscheinungsdatum
2021
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
6203471224
ISBN 13 
9786203471229
Einband
Taschenbuch
Anzahl der Seiten
308
Kontakt zum Hersteller
Presses Academiques Francophones
customerservice@vdm-vsg.de

Brivibas gatve 197
Riga
1039
Lettland