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With security of energy supply high on the international agenda and fears of resource shortages resurfacing, the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea are stepping onto the global stage, claiming for themselves new roles as providers of resources to the world. But with this newfound role come several uncertainties. How will the current recession affect these recently independent countries? How will global climate policy alter the value of their massive hydrocarbon reserves? And might the wealth generated from the sale of these resources lead to armed conflict within the region?
To better understand the potential impact of these forces, the authors of The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 imagine three different futures and predict the Caspian Sea region?s place within each. In the first scenario, the world is dominated by economic competition, and those countries around the Caspian Sea are leading gas and oil exporters. The second scenario describes a world dominated by geopolitical rivalry and resource nationalism in which the oil and gas sectors are state-controlled. And the last tells the story of a world where climate challenges have initiated a global shift from carbon-based to low-carbon energy sources.
A fascinating and timely exercise, The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 will be required reading for all those invested in global politics and the future of energy security.
Über den Autor: Morten Anker is a senior consultant at the research and consulting firm Econ Pöyry. Pavel K. Baev is a research professor at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Bjørn Brunstad is an expert in foresight and scenario planning, dividing his time between the Center for Climate Strategy at the Norwegian School of Management and Econ Pöyry. Indra Øverland is acting head of the Department of Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and associate professor at the University of Tromso. Stina Torjesen is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
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