The Perils and Promises of Prediction in the Natural Sciences: Historical and Epistemological Perspectives

This book provides a novel approach to a key topic in the history and philosophy of science, the role and status of prediction in the natural sciences. In contrast to most of the literature on the topic, this volume problematizes what constitutes a successful prediction. Even in fields where the value of prediction is not disputed, the role and status of prediction may change, and it is not always clear when a prediction is worth testing. Furthermore, this book examines how the gap between high-level theory and predictions of particular phenomena is bridged by using modelling and computer simulation, and concludes by discussing the dual role of scientific prediction: advancing both scientific knowledge as well as science policy. Written by top scholars in the field, this book is of great interest to historians, philosophers, and other students and scholars of science.

Theodore Arabatzis is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. He holds a Diploma in electrical engineering from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, and an MA and a PhD in history of science from Princeton University. He has been awarded fellowships from Princeton, MIT and the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science. His research has focused on the history of modern physical sciences and on historical philosophy of science. He has published many articles in these areas in international journals and edited collections. He is the author of Representing Electrons: A Biographical Approach to Theoretical Entities (University of Chicago Press, 2006), co-editor of Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions Revisited (Routledge, 2012), co-editor of Relocating the History of Science: Essays in Honor of Kostas Gavroglu (Springer, 2015), and co-editor of Big Science in the 21st Century: Economic and Societal Impacts (IOP, 2023). From 2010 to 2014, he was co-editor of the journal Metascience. In 2017 he was awarded the IUHPST Essay Prize in History and Philosophy of Science by the International Union of History and Philosophy of Science and Technology, for his essay entitled "What’s in it for the historian of science? Reflections on the value of philosophy of science for history of science". In 2019 he was elected corresponding member of the International Academy of the History of Science, in 2024 he was elected member of the European Academy of Sciences, and in 2025 he was elected member of the Academia Europaea. He has served the European Society for the History of Science as President-Elect (2018–2020), as President (2020-2022), and as Vice-President (2022-2024).

Stathis Arapostathis is Professor of History of Science and Technology at the Department of History and Philosophy of Science, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. He is Director of the Laboratory of Science, Technology and Innovation in Society (STIS). He studied Physics before completing a DPhil in History of Science at the University of Oxford under Prof. Robert Fox, followed by postdoctoral research in Leeds, Oxford, Edinburgh, and Cardiff. Since 2012 he has taught at NKUA, becoming Professor in 2024. He has been a visiting scholar at UC Davis (Fulbright), Princeton University, Université Paris Cité, the University of Graz, and LISIS/INRAE (IFRIS fellow). He has been Principal Investigator of the HFRI-funded projects CONEF: Configuring Food and Environment and Go-JuST: Governing Just Sociotechnical Transitions. His publications include a co-authored book with Graeme Gooday (MIT Press), nine edited volumes/special issues, and numerous articles and chapters. His research examines the social dimensions of science and technology, innovation, the role of experts and expertise in the governance and science and technology policy, and the politics of sociotechnical transitions, with a focus on agri-food, energy, environment, and emerging value chains in agri-food and pharmaceuticals.

Iraklis Katsaloulis is a historian of science whose research focuses on the historical, epistemological, and policy dimensions of scientific prediction, with a particular emphasis on seismology and the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction. He has earned a B.Sc. in Physics from the University of Crete, and he holds a Ph.D. in History and Philosophy of Science from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA). He has published widely on the history and philosophy of seismology and earthquake prediction, including the monograph The Earthquake Prediction Controversy in Greece: Science, Politics, and the Public Sphere (in Greek), as well as peer-reviewed articles and book chapters. He has also participated in European research projects related to Open Science and scholarly communication. Katsaloulis has held postdoctoral and research positions at NKUA, the Foundation for Research and Technology – Hellas (FORTH), and the National Documentation Centre of Greece (EKT).

Aristotle Tympas is Professor of History of Technology in the Department of History and Philosophy of Science at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. He has studied engineering (MSc, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 1989), technology and science policy (MSc, Georgia Tech, 1995), and history and sociology of technology (PhD, Georgia Tech, 2001). He has been a Former chair (2017-2019) of ‘Tensions of Europe: Research Network on History, Technology and Europe’, a guest professor at the University of Vienna and the European University Viadrina, and a visiting scholar at MIT and the Swedish Institute for Disability Research. His research has been supported by several fellowships (NSF, ΙΕΕΕ History Center, Smithsonian, Hagley, Chemical Heritage Foundation) and grants (ΕSF, EU FP7, EU Horizon 2020, EU Creative Europe, EU Erasmus+, EU COST). His publications include two monographs, Calculation and Computation in the Pre-electronic Era (Springer, 2017) and Analog Labor, Digital Capital (Angelus Novus, 2018, In Greek), and five edited/co-edited volumes.