New Mexico

"Everything looks overexposed out here," Barrett grumbled to himself as he drove into the studio parking lot. The direct sun, treeless yards, and cloudless skies make for a brightness which caused people to comment that his photos were too harsh and that software could take something off. "But that's what New Mexico looks like," he'd tell them. "Overexposed ... way overexposed." He found a place to park in the visitors section and walked toward the television studio that did contract work for international news stations. "At least it's easy to park here, even in downtown Albuquerque."

Barrett stiffened and looked warily as a man exited the building and came toward him. The man walked past him, got into his car, and drove off. Barrett continued to watch him a few moments more before entering the building.

"Barrett Parker," he announced to the receptionist, "I'm scheduled for an interview on Al Jazeera at two." She made a quick look on her screen and replied, "Studio 4, just down the hall to the left." He nodded and walked down the hallway, stopping to check his longish hair and short beard for the proper amount of dishevelment which he thought conveyed aloofness from convention. No security badge or sign-in book. New Mexico isn't like that. Los Alamos and Sandia Labs are like that. The rest of the state is low-key. It was like that in Billy the Kid's day and before.

New Mexico received a fresh infusion of offbeat people when hippies flocked there in the sixties. Some of them lived in buses converted into houses of sorts or in dwellings built to resemble flying saucers. Most of the offbeat New Mexicans weren't his crowd though he shared their eccentric spirit. Most of them mistrusted him because of his expertise in military matters. It just didn't fit with their world; no decent person should know what a Raptor or a Misagh-2 was. Barrett thought that was part of the problem with the country. Most people who oppose involvement around the world know nothing about world affairs and simply repeat old rallying cries from the sixties. In the absence of thoughtful criticism, national security institutions roll on and foreign policy gets messier and messier, deadlier and deadlier.

He sat in the black leather chair in a ten-by-ten chamber and looked into the camera three feet in front of him. Behind him a large LCD television showed a Jpeg of the stately Sandia Mountains to the city's east, providing an attractive backdrop to his head and shoulders atop a six-two frame whose athleticism was still immediately recognizable despite being fortyish. A technician adjusted the camera and handed him an earpiece and lapel mike.

"Hi Barrett," came the mellifluous voice of Khadija, the producer in Qatar, the small principality in the Persian Gulf that funds Al Jazeera and seeks to become a force in world affairs. "Another tweed jacket, I see. I presume you're wearing jeans and Tony Lamas beneath it."

"These are Luccheses, my mysterious Qatari friend," Barrett said as he raised a boot up for the camera. "I don't have Tony Lamas."

"I was right about the jeans though. I thought everyone wears Tony Lamas in New Mexico and Texas."

"That's like saying everyone where you live wears—"

"Sound check, please!"

Barrett began counting to ten as Khadija got the volume and compression right. "We'll go live in two minutes," she said. The anchor gave an intro on the increasing tensions with Iran then launched into the interview.

Anchor: We're pleased to have Barrett Parker with us to look more deeply into the situation. Barrett, is war with Iran imminent?

Barrett: I don't think so. We're still quite a ways off from anything serious. Right now, we have a geopolitical game of good cop, bad cop. Israel is threatening to attack while the European Union is trying to negotiate a settlement.

Anchor: But the talk out of Israel is very ominous.

Barrett: The prime minister doesn't have sufficient support for war. Only 32% of Israelis support unilateral attacks, and major figures in Mossad—that's the Israeli equivalent of the CIA—and the military are expressing skepticism about the judiciousness of an attack. A former Mossad chief called it the stupidest thing he'd ever heard of. His words, not mine.

Anchor: Of course. What about an American strike?

Barrett: At present, that's highly unlikely. The US has a different "red line" for attacking Iran than Israel has. Israel wants to attack before Iran moves its uranium enrichment facilities into mountain sites that are very difficult to destroy. The US is not as concerned about uranium enrichment. Iran can do that as long as it's for peaceful purposes.

Anchor: Are Iran's purposes peaceful?

Barrett: We have no firm evidence that Iran is making a weapon. It can have enriched uranium, even highly-enriched uranium. Without a triggering mechanism and warhead though, the uranium is not an immediate threat or even militarily useful.

Anchor: Isn't the United States under pressure, from both congress and the general public, to go along with the Israeli prime minister on this?

Barrett: Yes, there's a good deal of such pressure. However, the president knows that war with Iran would unleash a wave of bombings and assassinations around the region and oil prices would skyrocket. Rising oil prices will weaken world economies amid a sluggish recovery. Furthermore, the president has a very high opinion of himself and he does not want to go down in history as a president who continued the military ambitions of predecessors he opposed. Remember, he criticized the muscular foreign policy of his predecessors—and rather harshly too.

Anchor: His predecessors being the Neo-conservatives.

Barrett: That's right—the Neo-cons. The president and most of his advisers oppose reliance on military force.

Anchor: So you see nothing imminent.

Barrett: Correct. Watch the number of aircraft carriers the US has in the waters around Iran. Also, watch oil prices on the London and New York exchanges. They've been flat during all the recent sound and fury. Just a small bump here and there. In other words, people with billions of dollars at stake aren't greatly concerned.

Anchor: Anything going on behind the scenes you can tell us about?

Barrett: Well, I imagine the US and Israel are very eager to find out if Iran is currently going beyond uranium enrichment and building a weapon system.

Anchor: How would they find out?

Barrett: Satellite imagery and eavesdropping can provide some information, but my guess is that they're trying to get people inside a couple of research facilities to see for themselves. That will be difficult—and very dangerous too.

Anchor: Any idea where those research facilities are?

Barrett: Sure. Fordo, which is near the holy city of Qom, and Parchin, which is near Tehran. Fordo is a uranium-enrichment site and Parchin is where weapons production might be occurring. No one knows for sure, at least outside of the IRGC. Those are the places to watch.

Anchor: Fordo and Parchin. And the IRGC is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps?

Barrett: Yes, the IRGC is Iran's military elite. It's also involved in many business enterprises and intelligence operations. Many people think the IRGC has political ambitions. They'd like to wrest control of the country from the religious figures.

Anchor: Do you think the IRGC has...