turchin peter (323 Ergebnisse)

Zustand: New. &Uumlber den AutorPeter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, h.

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Zustand: Sehr gut. Zustand: Sehr gut | Seiten: 448 | Sprache: Französisch | Produktart: Bücher.

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Zustand: Hervorragend. Zustand: Hervorragend | Seiten: 496 | Sprache: Türkisch | Produktart: Bücher.

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Zustand: New. Idioma/Language: Español. Los procesos históricos son dinámicos. Las poblaciones crecen y caen. Los imperios se expanden y colapsan. Las religiones florecen y se marchitan. Los científicos han logrado grandes avances en la comprensión de los procesos dinámicos en la física y la biología utilizando un en-foque sintético que combina los modelos matemáticos con el análisis estadístico, pero estos avances no se habían aplicado anteriormente a la historia de seres humanos. Este libro muestra que una investigación similar puede hacer avanzar nuestra comprensión de los procesos dinámicos en la historia. Peter Turchin desarrolla su teoría «Cliodinámica» a partir de la conversión de una amplia gama de factores sociales, políticos, económicos y demográficos a modelos matemáticos. Centrándose en aspectos como la geopolítica, los factores que afectan la solidaridad colectiva, la asimilación étnica, la conversión religiosa, la interacción entre la población o la estabilidad sociopolítica. Las pruebas demuestran que ciertos modelos predicen patrones con un grado muy alto de precisión. Por ejemplo, explica las olas recurrentes de ruptura de los Estados en la Europa medieval y moderna o confirman que la solidaridad etnonacionalista produce un estado agresivamente expansivo bajo ciertas condiciones. La fuerza de los resultados de Turchin sugiere que el enfoque que él defiende puede mejorar significativamente nuestra comprensión de la dinámica histórica. «Peter Turchin, quizás el historiador más estudiado del momento». Matthew Syed, The Times. «Peter Turchin, el Nostradamus de la historia que hace diez años ya predijo que 2020 sería atroz». Miquel Echarri, El País. «Una maravillosa mirada entre bastidores a un esfuerzo por convertir las teorías informales en modelos matemáticos convincentes capaces de producir nuevos conocimientos». William C. Terry, Universidad Cemson. "Peter Turchin, el científico que predijo los conflictos de 2020". Dimas Ibarra (Cambio 16) *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Zustand: New. Idioma/Language: Español. ¿Qué abre las puertas a la turbulencia política y a la fractura social? ¿Con qué herramientas mantienen las élites su posición dominante? ¿Por qué a veces los gobiernos pierden de repente el control del poder? Durante décadas, Peter Turchin ha estudiado la historia del mundo como nadie. Tras sumergirse en ingentes cantidades de datos que abarcan diez mil años de actividad humana y desarrollar nuevos modelos a partir de ellos, ha sido capaz de transformar la forma en que aprendemos delpasado a través de la cliodinámica, el estudio de las grandes dinámicas históricas. Final de partida es la culminación de su investigación: un innovador y revelador relato sobre cómo funcionan las sociedades. Las lecciones que se pueden aprender de la historia universal son claras: cuando el equilibrio de poder entre la clase dominante y la mayoría se inclina demasiado a favor de las élites, aumenta la desigualdad de ingresos. Los ricos se enriquecen y los pobres se empobrecen. A medida que más personas intentan unirse a la élite, la frustración hacia la clase dirigente se desborda, a menudo con consecuencias desastrosas. Ese fenómeno, que Turchin denomina «bomba de la riqueza», condujo al colapso del Estado en la China imperial, en la Francia medieval, en los Estados Unidos anteriores a la guerra de Secesión. . . y está ocurriendo ahora. ¿Cuánto nos puede ayudar el estudio de la cliodinámica a evitarlo? ¿Aún estamos a tiempo de cambiar el rumbo de la historia? La crítica ha dicho: «Un destacado vidente de la era digital. . . Un gran relato que abarca la esperanza y el fracaso humanos». Tim Adams, The Observer «Extraordinario. El culmen de muchos años de un trabajo muy original e innovador». Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg «En Final de partida , Turchin ofrece una teoría lúcida y elegante quese sostiene a través del tiempo y los países como una ley natural o un descubrimiento científico». The Wall Street Journal «Del hombre que predijo el ascenso de Trump ?o de alguien muy parecido a él?, una explicación extraordinariamente clara y basada en datos sobre por qué las sociedades entran en crisis y cómo lograr que sea lo menos violenta posible». The Guardian Summer Reading «Peter Turchin añade ciencia a la historia. A algunos les gusta y otros prefieren la historia sin más. No obstante, todos ellos deberían prestar atención al análisis convincente, documentado y terrorífico presentado en este libro». Angus Deaton, premio Nobel de Economía «Turchin es el hombre cuyos extravagantes vaticinios eran acogidos por la comunidad científica con perplejidad desdeñosa. Hasta que empezaron a cumplirse». Miquel Echarri, El País *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Soft Cover. Zustand: As New. 8vo, br. ed. 368pp. 'Game of Thrones-style intra-elite conflict meets big data' TLS 'Extraordinary. . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work' Bloomberg One of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time offers a brilliant new theory of how society works What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works. The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now. But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.

hardcover. Zustand: Gut. 260 Seiten; 9780691116693.3 Gewicht in Gramm: 1.

Pamphlet. Zustand: Very Good. Vol 70, No 4, pp. 1008-1016, Illus, 4to, Extracted from orig vol, thus begins with title page, trimmed & stapled pamphlet, else VG.

Pamphlet. Zustand: Very Good. Vol 72, No 4, pp. 1253-1266, Illus, 4to, Extracted from orig vol, thus begins with title page, trimmed & stapled pamphlet, else VG.

Pamphlet. Zustand: Very Good. Vol 67, No 1, pp. 124- 132, Illus, 4to, Extracted from orig vol, begins with title page, stapled & trimmed, thus is like a pamphlet, VG.

Soft Cover. Zustand: New. 8vo, br. ed. 368pp. What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works. The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now. But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.

Paperback. Zustand: Brand New. 410 pages. 9.00x6.00x0.93 inches. In Stock.

Paperback. Zustand: As New. First Edition. Illustrated with a few charts, small thick octavo, pp xviii, 450, paperback, an extremely good copy, virtually as new. [Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations. Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.].

Soft Cover. Zustand: New. 8vo, br. ed. 288pp. WE ARE ON THE WRONG TRACK Seventy percent of Americans (and counting) think so. The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years agobut there are four times as many multimillionaires. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Every year, more and more Americans go on shooting sprees, killing strangers and passers-byand now, increasingly, representatives of the state. Troubling trends of this kind are endlessly discussed by public intellectuals and social scientists. But mostly, they talk about only a small slice of the overall problem. After all, how on earth can yet another murderous rampage have anything to do with polarization in Congress? And is there really a connection between too many multimillionaires and government gridlock? Historical analysis shows that long spells of equitable prosperity and internal peace are succeeded by protracted periods of inequity, increasing misery, and political instability. These crisis periods"Ages of Discord"have recurred in societies throughout history. Modern Americans may be disconcerted to learn that the US right now has much in common with the Antebellum 1850s and, more surprisingly, with ancien régime France on the eve of the French Revolution. Can it really be true that there is nothing new about our troubled time, and that similar ages arise periodically for similar underlying reasons? Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demograpic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord.

2003 1ST FINE PB BLACK /YELLOW CARD COVERS.