TETLOCK, PHILIP (418 Ergebnisse)

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.

Softcover. Zustand: Bon. Ancien livre de bibliothèque. Traces de pliures sur la couverture. Traces d'usure sur la couverture. Salissures sur la tranche. Edition 1993. Ammareal reverse jusqu'à 15% du prix net de cet article à des organisations caritatives. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Book Condition: Used, Good. Former library book. Traces of creases on the cover. Signs of wear on the cover. Stains on the edge. Edition 1993. Ammareal gives back up to 15% of this item's net price to charity organizations.

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 0.25.

Zustand: as new. Wie neu/Like new.

Zustand: Good. Ships from the UK. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

No jacket. Zustand: Très bon. Ancien livre de bibliothèque avec équipements. Sans jaquette. Couverture différente. Edition 1991. Ammareal reverse jusqu'à 15% du prix net de cet article à des organisations caritatives. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Book Condition: Used, Very good. Former library book. No dust jacket. Different cover. Edition 1991. Ammareal gives back up to 15% of this item's net price to charity organizations.

Zustand: Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Zustand: Very Good. Shipped within 24 hours from our UK warehouse. Clean, undamaged book with no damage to pages and minimal wear to the cover. Spine still tight, in very good condition. Remember if you are not happy, you are covered by our 100% money back guarantee.

Hardcover. Zustand: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.33.

Zustand: Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Zustand: Very Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

Softcover. Zustand: Gut. 352 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 520.

Hardcover. Zustand: As New. Leichte Abnutzungen. Schopnost predpovidat budoucnost by byla pro kazdeho z nas cenna, at uz pri investicich, uvadeni novych produktu na trh nebo planovani osobnich aktivit. Avsak lide obvykle nejsou dobri prognostici. Profesor Tetlock ve sve studii z roku 2005 ukazal, ze i odborne predpovedi jsou casto jen o neco lepsi nez nahoda. Nekteri lide vsak maji vyjimecnou schopnost predpovidat budoucnost, a Tetlock se posledni dekadu snazil zjistit, proc tomu tak je a zda se to da naucit.Tetlock a novinar Dan Gardner prinaseji mistrovske dilo o predpovidani, ktere vychazi z dlouholeteho vyzkumu a velke prognosticke souteze, kterou podporila americka vlada. Projekt Dobry usudek zapojil desitky tisic obycejnych lidi, kteri meli za ukol predpovidat svetove udalosti. Nekteri z nich byli prekvapive uspesni a prekonali nejen ostatni ucastniky, ale i akademicke experty a analytiky zpravodajskych sluzeb.Autori ukazuji, co se muzeme naucit od techto ,superpredpovidacu" a prinaseji pribehy uspesnych i neuspesnych predpovedi. Dobreho predpovidani lze dosahnout sberem informaci z ruznych zdroju, pravdepodobnostnim uvazovanim, tymovou praci a ochotou pripustit chybu. Kniha predstavuje efektivni a vedecky podlozenou metodu, jak zlepsit schopnosti predvidat budouci udalosti v byznysu, politice i kazdodennim zivote.

Paperback. Zustand: Gut. 401 p. Isolated penciled marks, otherwise good condition. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 530.

Zustand: good. Befriedigend/Good: Durchschnittlich erhaltenes Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit Gebrauchsspuren, aber vollständigen Seiten. / Describes the average WORN book or dust jacket that has all the pages present.

Zustand: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Softcover. Zustand: Gut. 356 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 610.

Paperback. Zustand: New. Is your business playing it safeand#8212or taking the right risks?If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.This book will inspire you to:Avoid the most common errors in risk managementUnderstand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordinglyEmbrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovationAdopt best practices for mitigating political threatsUpgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edgeDetect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your companyThis collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; "Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.

Zustand: Very Good. Very Good condition. A copy that may have a few cosmetic defects. May also contain light spine creasing or a few markings such as an owner's name, short gifter's inscription or light stamp.

Zustand: Neuf.

Zustand: New. Idioma/Language: Español. Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos" predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión, etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de años de investigación, que los "pronosticadores expertos" tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los "superpronosticadores": personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son "gente común", no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada. Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña 'Superpronosticadores', tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en función de cada nueva evidencia o información relacionada con el tema. *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Zustand: very good. Gut/Very good: Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit wenigen Gebrauchsspuren an Einband, Schutzumschlag oder Seiten. / Describes a book or dust jacket that does show some signs of wear on either the binding, dust jacket or pages.

Hardcover. Zustand: Very Good. cover shows minor shelf wear. pages are clean and unmarked. 2 2.

Zustand: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Hardcover. Zustand: Good.

Zustand: New. In.

Rústica con solapas. Zustand: Buen estado. Libro.

hardcover. Zustand: Gut. 336 Seiten; 9783100800244.3 Gewicht in Gramm: 1.

Zustand: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.