ISBN: 9781118073759 - the flaw of averages: why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty (64 Ergebnisse)

Paperback. Zustand: Good. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…

Zustand: acceptable. Book shows noticeable wear from use. May include writing, highlighting, or other markings, but not excessive. Cover or edges may have visible wear. The book remains complete and fully readable. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: Good. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: Very Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: acceptable. Fairly worn, but readable and intact. If applicable: Dust jacket, disc or access code may not be included. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. 1. It's a well-cared-for item that has seen limited use. The item may show minor signs of wear. All the text is legible, with all pages included. It may have slight markings and/or highlighting. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: good. All pages and cover are intact with minor wear to the pages, binding, and possible minor marks within. 100% Satisfaction Guarantee!! **Ships SWIFTLY!**. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…

Paperback. Zustand: Good. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…

Zustand: good. Supports Goodwill of Silicon Valley job training programs. The cover and pages are in Good condition! Any other included accessories are also in Good condition showing use. Use can include some highlighting and writing, page and cover creases as well as other types visible wear. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator). …

Paperback. Zustand: Fair. Book in Fair condition. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Good. Book in Good condition. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paper Back. Zustand: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: New. Brand New! Not Overstocks or Low Quality Book Club Editions! Direct From the Publisher! We're not a giant, faceless warehouse organization! We're a small town bookstore that loves books and loves it's customers! Buy from Lakeside Books. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Zustand: As New. Unread book in perfect condition. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

Paperback or Softback. Zustand: New. The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator). Book.

Paperback. Zustand: New. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…

paperback. Zustand: Very Good. Most items will be dispatched the same or the next working day. A copy that has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).

paperback. Zustand: Good. Most items will be dispatched the same or the next working day. A copy that has been read but remains in clean condition. All of the pages are intact and the cover is intact and the spine may show signs of wear. The book may have minor markings which are not specifically mentioned. Previous owners name. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).…