9781118073759 - the flaw of averages: why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty von savage, sam l. (58 Ergebnisse)
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Flaw of Averages : Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
Savage, Sam L.; Danziger, Jeff (ILT); Markowitz, Harry (FRW)
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Flaw of Averages : Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
Savage, Sam L.; Danziger, Jeff (ILT); Markowitz, Harry (FRW)
- Softcover
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Paperback or Softback. Zustand: New. The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator). Book.
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Paperback. Zustand: New. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, nex…t year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
- Erstausgabe
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Paperback. Zustand: new. Paperback. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next months…sales, next years costs, or tomorrows stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the readers intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savages lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages. William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
Anbieter: Rarewaves.com USA, London, LONDO, Vereinigtes KönigreichRarewaves.com USA
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Paperback. Zustand: New. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, nex…t year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
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Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
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PAP. Zustand: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
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paperback. Zustand: Very Good. Orders shipped daily from the UK. Professional seller. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
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Zustand: New. pp. 416. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
- Softcover
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- Softcover
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Zustand: New. pp. 416. Danziger, Jeff (illustrator).
